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2022 Election: 28 candidates compete for six House seats in Orange County

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There are 28 candidates vying for a shot in the June 7 primary to advance to the general election for Orange County’s six newly drawn Congressional seats, according to records from county elections officials.

A few new faces jumped in within days of the March 11 deadline to register as a candidate, including an Oscar-winning producer who joined three other Republicans challenging Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, in a new coastal district.

The primary election, of course, will simply narrow the field, as the top two candidates in each race who receive the most votes will face off again in the decisive general election on Nov. 8.

Orange County features some of the nation’s most evenly divided congressional districts, and several of the races figure to be competitive.

Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, faces the most crowded field as he goes for a third term, with five Republicans and one Democrat hoping to replace him to represent a district that straddles southern Orange County and northern San Diego County.

And while both of the county’s GOP incumbents, Reps. Michelle Steel and Young Kim, are facing Republican challengers to their re-elections, their stiffest opposition is expected to come from the single Democrat in each race.

Though redistricting has substantially changed boundaries and some labels of Orange County’s four swing districts, all four are still potentially in play this cycle. But the only local race rated by forecasters as a straight toss-up is the new 45th District, which now includes all or parts of Placentia, Brea, Buena Park, Cerritos, Cypress, Rossmoor, Westminster, Garden Grove and Fountain Valley, and where Democrats hold a 4.9 point registration advantage over Republicans.

Freshman incumbent Steel, R-Seal Beach, is already in a heated battle with Democrat Jay Chen, who runs a real estate firm and is an intelligence officer in the Navy reserves. Neither candidate lives in CA-45, which isn’t required but is considered favorable. Chen said he will move to the district if he wins, while Steel’s campaign hasn’t responded to that question.

On the final day of filing, Republican Long Pham of Fountain Valley also jumped into the CA-45 race. Pham is an engineer who was formerly on the Orange County Board of Education, so he may have some name recognition. But Steel and Chen are expected to easily advance out of the primary to the November election.

The next closest races, per forecasters, are the new 47th and 49th districts, both of which are rated as “lean” or “likely” Democrat.

Of the four Republicans challenging Porter in CA-47, only one has held office before, attorney Scott Baugh of Huntington Beach. As a former GOP Assembly leader, Baugh already won an endorsement from the state GOP, making him the favored candidate to advance with Porter to the general election. In the newly drawn district, which stretches from Seal Beach to Laguna Beach and includes Irvine, Democrats currently hold a 1.1 point registration advantage over Republicans.

Given that slim Democratic advantage, the Republican side of the race is already heating up, with rental car company owner Amy Phan West, a Republican who lives in Westminster, directing early campaign attacks at Baugh. On Tuesday, she publicized poll results that show her with a 1-point advantage over Baugh, and her campaign spokesman pointed out that Baugh lost in the primary last time he ran for Congress in 2018. (West, who lives outside CA-47, also lost in a primary, in 2020, when she ran against Rep. Alan Lowenthal.)

Other Republicans hoping to win in CA-47 include I.T. consultant Brian Burley of Huntington Beach, who lost in the 2020 primary that included Steel, and Errol Webber of Costa Mesa, a self-proclaimed “America First” candidate whose documentary short film won an Oscar in 2010.

While some forecasters have pegged Levin, in CA-49, as a bit safer than Porter, in CA-47, there’s a bigger question about who might advance with Levin to the general election. The district covers south coastal Orange County plus northern San Diego County and Democrats hold a 1.9 point advantage in voter registration.

Campaign attacks already are heating up between five GOP challengers: O.C. Supervisor Lisa Bartlett of Dana Point; former San Juan Capistrano councilman Brian Maryott; Oceanside councilmember Christopher Rodriguez; San Diego County Sheriff’s deputy Josiah O’Neil of Murrieta, and cybersecurity expert and veteran activist Renee Taylor of San Juan Capistrano. Maryott, who lost to Levin in 2020, has an advantage with an endorsement from the state GOP.

One Democrat also joined the CA-49 race just before the filing deadline: Nadia Bahia Smalley of Chula Vista, a businesswoman who ran for president in 2020.

Only one local House district this cycle is considered “likely Republican:” CA-40, which covers eastern Orange County, from Rancho Mission Viejo up to Yorba Linda, and extends to Chino Hills in San Bernardino County. Registration in the district favors the GOP by 5.6 points.

In CA-40, freshman incumbent Kim, R-La Habra, is expected advance out of the June primary with Democratic challenger Asif Mahmood, a physician who had a solid showing in the 2018 primary for state insurance commissioner. But Kim does face two challengers from the political right — Mission Viejo councilman Greg Raths, a Republican who lost to Porter in 2020, and junk hauler Nick Taurus of Laguna Hills, a Republican who describes himself as an American Nationalist activist.

The final two districts in Orange County are considered “safe Democrat” seats.

In CA-46 — a majority Latino district that includes most of Santa Ana and Anaheim plus parts of Stanton, Fullerton and Orange, and where Democrats hold a 27.5 point registration advantage  — three-time incumbent Rep. Lou Correa, D-Anaheim, is facing five challengers. Three of those challengers are Republican: Irvine attorney Christopher Gonzales, who ran against Porter in the 2020 primary and has California GOP backing; property broker and former engineer Mike Nguyen of Santa Ana; and retired federal agent Felix Rocha Jr., whose city is unknown.

The race in CA-46 also includes No Party Preference candidate Ed Rushman of Anaheim, an I.T. project manager who failed to make it out of the 2020 primary, and Democrat Mike Ortega, a biomedical engineer and self-proclaimed socialist from Anaheim.

In CA-38, which also is majority Latino and includes a slice of La Habra and a much bigger slice of southeast Los Angeles County, 10-term incumbent Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Whittier, is facing Walnut Mayor Pro Tem Eric Ching and pastor and business owner John Sarega of La Mirada. Democrats hold a 26 point registration advantage in the district.

Though all the filings were turned in before the recent deadline, the Secretary of State has until the end of the month to formally qualify these candidates for the June 7 ballot.

The next indication of how these races are shaping up will come by April 15, when candidates must file reports showing how much money they’ve raised and spent in the first quarter of 2022.

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