The tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine did not have to happen. With Russian forces launching strikes on Ukrainian cities, Russian President Vladimir Putin has once and for all shown his determination to solve the Ukraine issue with terms dictated by Moscow. While Putin rightfully deserves blame for launching the invasion, Western leaders were negligent in allowing the Ukraine-Russia crisis to devolve to the point where an invasion seemed palatable to Moscow. Now, the primary objective of the United States and our European allies must be to stop further loss of life, prevent hostilities from spilling over into the rest of Europe, and work toward a stabilization of relations between the West and Russia.

U.S. President Joe Biden and European leaders had the opportunity to negotiate a peaceful resolution before war broke out, however a stubborn adherence to naïve idealism prevented such an outcome. In December, Moscow delivered a list of demands to the United States and NATO, citing NATO’s eastward expansion as the primary driver of Russia’s security concerns. U.S. and NATO leaders firmly rejected Russia’s red line that NATO halt further expansion.

Protesting NATO enlargement is not unique to Vladimir Putin. Every Russian leader since the end of the Cold War has objected to NATO’s eastward expansion. Russia was too weak to do anything but lodge verbal concerns in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, highlight the unfortunate reality that Russia must once again be considered a formidable power—one that is capable and willing to achieve political ends through military means.

As a core Russian security interest, prudent U.S. and European leaders would have recognized the necessity of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, understanding that Russia would be willing to wage war to achieve its objective. Instead, U.S., European, and NATO leaders brushed off Russia’s primary security concerns and focused on issues of secondary importance, such as military transparency measures. Now, Ukrainians, fighting valiantly, but with little hope of achieving victory over superior attacking forces, are suffering the disastrous consequences.

Making the situation even more tragic is the fact that U.S., NATO, and Ukrainian officials admit in private that potential Ukrainian accession into the alliance was years, if not decades away. The adherence to NATO’s “open-door” policy has led to the unnecessary destruction of a sovereign Ukraine. Western diplomats displayed a total lack of imagination and fortitude to negotiate a solution that would assure Ukraine’s independence in exchange for taking NATO membership off the table.

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With no core security interest of its own at stake, the United States must ensure that the invasion of Ukraine does not precipitate a greater war in Europe, which could escalate to the nuclear level. The United States and Europe will implement tough sanctions on Russia, however it is unlikely that they will alter Moscow’s security objectives. Afterall, Russia has faced severe sanctions since their illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. As is now sadly evident, sanctions did little to change Moscow’s calculus.

Out of this tragedy, a new European security order must be created. The order should be led by the Europeans themselves, who must now shoulder a greater burden for their own defense. Such an order, if it is to ensure long-lasting stability on the continent, must prudently incorporate Russia. The West had the opportunity to engage with Russia in good-faith following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but it instead chose to discount Moscow’s security concerns in pursuit of its own agenda. The war now unfolding in Ukraine can be traced back to that fateful decision. Let us learn from history and ensure that such a mistake is not repeated.

Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at Defense Priorities. He focuses on U.S. grand strategy, international security, and transatlantic relations.