A new independent poll of some of the nation’s most competitive House races suggest Democrats are on track to gain seats in California, and that Orange County could see a shift in its national representation.

The survey, conducted by researchers from the University of Southern California, Cal State Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, found that Democrats hold slim leads over Republicans in four of the state’s six most competitive congressional districts. It also shows three GOP incumbents — Rep. Michelle Steel, in the central Orange County seat CA-45, Rep. Ken Calvert, in the Inland Empire seat CA-41, and Rep. Mike Garcia, in the north Los Angeles County district CA-27 — either trailing or virtually tied with Democratic challengers.

In the U.S. House of Representatives the GOP currently holds 220 seats and Democrats hold 211, while four seats are vacant. If the new survey results hold over the next two months California voters could be a key to flipping the House from red to blue.

But the numbers also show that’s a big if.

The survey of 3,700 voters — conducted from Sept. 14-21 in eight House districts across the state — has a 4.3% margin of error. That’s bigger than the difference in any of the closest races and suggestive of a possible statistical dead heat. The survey also includes data from voters who are undecided but leaning toward one party or another, suggesting that any Democratic gains could depend on particularly strong turnout in November.

In addition to questions about congressional representation the survey also asked likely voters who they would choose for the U.S. Senate and President.

Here’s a look at findings in two key Orange County races:

45th congressional district

Of the 498 likely voters surveyed in the 45th district, including voters who said they were likely to vote but haven’t yet settled on a candidate, 47.9% said they favor Democrat Derek Tran, from Orange, while 46.1% said they would choose Steel, R-Seal Beach.

When asked who they supported in the 2022 midterm election, 41% said they supported Steel, while 37% backed Democrat Jay Chen. More than one in five of those likely voters said they did not vote, or don’t remember voting, in ’22.

While Steel’s past election wins have demonstrated Republican endurance in a Democratic-leaning district — she represents a district President Joe Biden won in 2020 — the survey results show other Democrats currently are looking strong within the district. Among CA-45 voters surveyed, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, holds a 7 point lead over Republican Steve Garvey in their race for the U.S. Senate, while Vice President Kamala Harris holds an 8.3 point lead over former President Donald Trump in their bid for the White House.

Other forecasters were suggesting that Democrats were gaining ground in CA-45 even before the new poll came out. Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of CA-45 from “lean Republican” to “Republican toss up,” and Inside Elections, a newsletter that provides campaign analysis, also changed its rating from “lean Republican” to “tilt Republican.”

Tran’s spokesperson Orrin Evans pointed to internal polling that says Tran’s lead reflects his “ability to unite a diverse coalition of supporters.” The district is among the most heavily Asian seats in the country, but it also includes a large block of Latino voters. The new survey shows Tran leading Steel by more than 10 points among Latino and Black voters and by about 2.4 points among Asian voters.

Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead researcher of the survey, noted that about four in ten of the Asian voters surveyed in CA-45 are Vietnamese American. The next largest groups of Asian people who responded were Chinese and Filipino.

“Vietnamese voters are splitting the vote with Steel and Tran each getting over 40%,” he said, adding that among Vietnamese surveyed voters, those under 40 appear to be supportive of Tran while older Vietnamese voters over 40 are backing Steel.

The gender gap also is more pronounced in CA-45 than in most other surveyed districts, the survey found, though not in a way that might be expected in a race featuring a man and a woman. The survey found women favor Tran over Steel by about 18 points.

Steel’s spokesperson, Lance Trover, said Tran and his “corporate pals” have spent over $1.5 million attacking Steel while her campaign has yet to begin its push against Tran.

47th congressional district

The affluent 47th covers several coastal communities in Orange County, and it’s the only place where the new survey found that the Republican candidate, Scott Baugh, leads the Democrat, state Sen. Dave Min.

It’s also the only open seat in Orange County, with three-time incumbent Katie Porter, D-Irvine, not running for re-election after losing a bid for the U.S. Senate.

According to the survey, Baugh is ahead of Min by about 3 percentage points. Of the 525 likely voters surveyed in CA-47, including undecided likely voters, 48.6% said they would vote for Baugh, while 45.9% said they would choose Min.

Unlike surveyed voters in CA-45, voters in the coastal district narrowly favor Garvey over Schiff for U.S. Senator. But they side with Harris, by about 3 points, over Trump, in the race for President.

The poll also suggested that a recent spate of advertising for Baugh that highlight Min’s 2023 drunk driving conviction is working. When asked to list a word or phrase to describe each candidate, the words used most frequently (about 14%) to describe Min were “DUI/Drunk/Drunk driving/Drunk driver.”

Grose said Min has a chance to win if there’s a very large Democratic turnout. In CA-47, surveyed voters who said they are excited to vote in November favor Min by 13.1 points.

Within hours of the new poll numbers coming out, late Tuesday, Min addressed the findings in an email request for donations.

“Here’s the bad news, team: Recent polling shows Dave is behind Scott Baugh by a few points,” his campaign wrote.

“This poll is only going to amplify Republicans’ efforts to attack Dave by blanketing the district with false attacks. We have to correct the record and reach voters with Dave’s message.”

The survey also asked voters what words they would use to describe Baugh, who in the 1990s faced his own criminal accusations, related to election interference. About 15% of voters used the word “conservative” to describe Baugh, while nearly 12% described him as “corrupt/crook/violated campaign finance laws,” and “dishonest/liar/untrustworthy.”

Baugh said he isn’t worried about those results, noting his negatives are highest among Democrats who “are not going to vote for me anyway.”

“Katie Porter and the Democrats spent over $30 million spreading disinformation about me,” Baugh said. “So none of that surprises me.”

Baugh, a former head of the Republican Party of Orange County and a former State Assembly member, was indicted in 1996 by an Orange County Grand Jury on charges related to his State Assembly election. He later paid civil fines of nearly $48,000.

Related Articles