Right now, there is little reason to believe that the Democratic nominee for president in 2024 will be anyone other than Joe Biden. Still, the question of who would be Democrats’ “Plan B” looms large due to Biden’s age, fitness, and his son Hunter’s ongoing legal drama.

If, for whatever reason, Biden is unable or unwilling to seek a second term, the front runners to be the next leader of the Democratic Party would likely come down to two Californians: Vice President Kamala Harris and current Gov. Gavin Newsom. 

While any vice president is the most obvious choice to succeed a president, Harris’ low polling numbers have caused many Democratic insiders to consider other high-profile politicians who could mount a last-minute campaign, like Newsom.

Indeed, new polling by my firm, Schoen Cooperman Research, found that Harris’ favorability – just 41% favorable – was even lower than Biden’s (46%), and recent NBC polling revealed that Harris was viewed more negatively than any other Vice President in the history of its poll. 

Recognizing the dilemma Democrats find themselves in with Harris, Newsom has quietly been trying to boost his national profile ahead of a possible last minute 2024 run. As I previously wrote in these pages, Newsom has spent the past year campaigning for Biden in red states, taking out ads attacking Republican Governors in Florida and Texas, and is preparing to debate Florida Governor and GOP presidential candidate Ron DeSantis this November in the swing state of Georgia. 

It is highly unlikely that Newsom would be spending this much time outside of California, and presenting himself as a strong, national leader of the Democratic Party if he did not see an opening in 2024.

That being said, new data suggests that Harris may not be in as weak a position as previously thought, and indicates that Newsom may be overconfident if he thinks that he would be able to successfully top the Democratic ticket should Biden withdraw.

In the NBC poll, which was conducted in June, just 32% of voters had a favorable view of Harris – compared to 41% in my firm’s latest poll – marking an impressive 9-point increase in just two short months.

Moreover, evidence of Harris’ improved standing among Democratic voters extends beyond her favorability ratings. In a horserace that asked who voters would like to see replace Biden on the ticket should he withdraw, nearly 4-in-10 (37%) Democratic primary voters support Harris, more than double Newsom’s support at 17%, per SCR polling.

Perhaps even more impressive for the Vice President is that by a 28-point margin (50% to 22%), Democratic primary voters see her, rather than Newsom, as having the best chance to win a general election were Biden to step aside as the nominee. Harris is also stronger than Newsom amongst crucial voter groups such as suburban women – 27% of whom say Harris has the best chance to win a general election compared to 12% for Newsom. 

Public polling reinforces Harris’ strength vis-à-vis Newsom. Weekly polling by FiveThirthyEight shows Harris consistently leading an expanded field of candidates, and notably besting Newsom by double digits overall, and among key demographic groups such as African-American and Hispanic voters.

Despite early stumbles, Harris has clearly benefited from being the administration’s point person on hot button issues such as abortion, civil rights, and gun control, all of which figure to be centerpieces of the 2024 general election. Or, as a Biden campaign aide put it in Politico, “The issues where she’s out in front happen to be the ones that people care about and that motivate our base.” 

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Regarding the Democratic Party’s base, if Newsom were to officially enter the presidential race, he would have to contend with challenges beyond Kamala Harris’ strength. He would be forced to defend his record in California, which is struggling with surging crime and homelessness, and the inevitable pushback against being a straight, rich, white man seeking to overtake a black, female VP in a Democratic party which is increasingly focused on identity politics.

To be sure, both Harris and Newsom face legitimate questions over whether their political styles would appeal to moderates and Independents if they were at the top of a national ticket. Whereas Harris leads Newsom in the horserace among Democratic primary voters by 20-points (37% to 17%), her lead drops to just 7-points among all voters (17% to 10%) in SCR polling.

However, before either Harris or Newsom faced general election voters, they would have to win the support of the Democratic base, and in that contest, the data clearly reveals that Harris is in a much stronger position than Newsom, and that the base believes Harris gives them the best chance to win if Biden were to decide to bow out of the 2024 race.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime political consultant and the founder of Schoen Cooperman Research.