She’s a conservative Republican from Laguna Niguel who owns a wedding planning business and now serves in the Assembly.
He’s a moderate Democrat from San Clemente who’s a former Homeland Security attorney and now serves as his city’s mayor pro tem.
As the only two candidates hoping to represent the newly formed 74th Assembly District — and with state law guaranteeing that the top two vote getters in a June primary advance to the general election — Laurie Davies and Chris Duncan are guaranteed to face off in November. But results from the June 7 primary could be a strong signal about Davies’ prospects to win a second term in the Assembly, or Duncan’s odds of upsetting Davies and flipping the seat from red to blue.
The race for AD-74 is expected to be one of the most competitive Assembly races in Southern California. Voter registration in the district is a dead heat, and both candidates have the backing of their state parties along with many key officeholders on their respective sides of the aisle.
Forecasters so far are predicting Davies will narrowly win, given her advantages as an incumbent and the historic pattern of the minority party performing well in midterm elections.
She also bested Duncan once already, when she finished first and Duncan finished third in the 2020 primary race for the 72nd Assembly District. But Duncan entered that race late, and their rematch is happening in a district that looks quite different from the one Davies ultimately won two years ago with 58.5% of the vote.
Davies’ current district covers much of southern Orange County, from Dana Point east to the canyon communities, and it favored Republicans by 10 points when she cruised to victory. But that district was split when a state panel in December redrew political boundaries during the once-in-a-decade redistricting process, and Davies’ Laguna Niguel home was drawn into AD-74.
The 74th District includes the southern portion of coastal Orange County and northern portion of coastal San Diego County, stretching from Laguna Niguel to Oceanside. AD-74 still skews older and less diverse than some neighboring districts, though Democrats in the new district have a 0.1% advantage in voter registration.
Davies, 60, is a former mayor of Laguna Niguel who previously served on the board of directors for the Orange County Transportation Authority and the Orange County Fire Authority.
During her first year in the state legislature, Davies had a higher ratio of bills she’d introduced get signed into law than any other local Assembly member. That included AB 381, which requires all drug treatment centers to have opioid overdose medication onsite at all times, and AB 419, which protects personal information about victims and witnesses of crimes so they feel comfortable cooperating in investigations.
“In my first year as an Assemblymember, I was able to work across the aisle and get six out of six bills all signed into law by the governor. Bills that will benefit all Californians,” Davies said when asked about her proudest moment in office so far.
When it comes to key votes in 2021, Davies voted no on Senate Bill 9, which will let Californians build up to four housing units on current single-family lots. She also voted no on Senate Bill 2, which creates a process that can strip law enforcement officers of their badges if they’re convicted of crimes or some forms of misconduct.
In terms of political ideology, on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being far right, Davies rated herself a nine.
Duncan gave himself a five on that scale.
Duncan, 46, has a private law practice now. But as a former federal prosecutor and attorney with U.S. Customs and Border Control, he touts that he’s worked under administrations from both parties, tackled government corruption cases and has won awards for his work protecting the border from terrorists.
“I have spent my career in public service working with Democrats and Republicans to keep our country and community safe and prosperous with honesty and integrity,” he said. “I have a record of thinking independently to do what’s right.”
About the 74th Assembly District
Voter registration: 34.9% Democrat, 34.8% Republican, 28% no party preference
Voter demographics: 75.5% White, 18.7% Latino, 4.6% Asian American, 1.2% Black
After he didn’t advance out of the AD-72 primary in 2020, Duncan pivoted and, that fall, won a seat on the San Clemente City Council. In the role, he said he’s proud of “working with people across the political spectrum to protect our environment with clean energy options, reduce homelessness, safeguard our coasts and oceans, make our community safer and improve our quality of life.”
When it comes to their Assembly platforms and their stances on key issues, there’s a decent amount of overlap between Davies and Duncan. Both, for example, oppose the idea of single-payer healthcare and California’s sanctuary laws to protect undocumented immigrants. Both also say they want to make it easier to build new homes, want to keep schools open, support law enforcement, oppose new taxes, want to tackle government waste and have plans to address homelessness.
But while Davies promotes conservatorships to get the “mentally ill and addicted off the street and into treatment centers,” Duncan’s plan is focused on outreach and boosting access to affordable housing.
Related links
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When it comes to abortion rights, Duncan called himself a “champion for reproductive rights” while Davies said she’s “pro-life with exceptions.”
As for government mandates to combat climate change, Davies said policies are good as they are while Duncan said slightly more aggressive policies are needed.
If the question of gay marriage ever came up for a vote, Duncan said he’d support it while Davies skipped the question.
Elections officials will begin mailing primary ballots to all registered voters May 9. Centers will open for in-person voting starting May 28.