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Dodgers are World Series favorites again but know ‘on paper’ means little

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Here we are at the start of another season and the Dodgers are arguably the best team in baseball again.

On paper.

The alchemy of a baseball season, however, makes it uniquely difficult to turn paper into “a piece of metal” – MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s ill-chosen description of the World Series trophy. Only five times (including ties) in the past 22 full seasons has the team that won the most games in the regular season also raised that trophy after the World Series.

The Dodgers also did it following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season – their only championship during a run of nine consecutive playoff appearances (eight consecutive division championships) with a winning percentage of .604, – .614 since Andrew Friedman became president of baseball operations in 2015 – including franchise-record win totals (106) in each of the past two full seasons.

“Before the season starts, I’ll take it because it beats all other descriptors. But ultimately, it doesn’t mean all that much,” Friedman said of assembling the best team on paper. “You have a 162-game marathon to navigate that will help determine how accurate that is or not. Then the month of October ultimately determines the best team for that season.

“I mean, it’s what I love and hate about baseball. A lot of Octobers are determined by who’s playing best in that moment in time and isn’t always won by the best team.”

A lot happens on the journey from April to October. A year ago, the Dodgers – on paper – had an overwhelming wealth of starting pitching. By October, however, they stretched the only three they had left (Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Max Scherzer) to the breaking point. An Atlanta team that won just 88 games during the regular season went on its own journey, rebuilding its outfield on the fly and then eliminated the Dodgers in the NL Championship Series (the sixth consecutive year the Dodgers were eliminated by the eventual World Series champ or won it themselves).

“We were gassed,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts admitted this spring. “Having to play tooth and nail to ultimately concede the division to the Giants – which they earned it – and then to play a one-game, do-or-die (wild-card game), to find a way to win a game. Then to go up to the Bay and play five games and then to go on the road and play Atlanta.

“We were gassed. No excuses. We lost to a better team, playing better.”

Roberts’ response to falling short in 2021? He has guaranteed a World Series win in 2022.

“Our goal is to win the World Series. It is every single year,” Roberts said of that promise. “So to not shy away from it, not run from it – if guys think that’s too much pressure then we have the wrong players. And I don’t believe that.”

The Dodgers believe they added the right players this winter to reach that goal – most prominently, first baseman Freddie Freeman. Freeman faced the Dodgers with the Braves three times in the past four postseasons and called it “mentally exhausting” to try and beat the Dodgers.

So why does he think they have won just one championship during this run?

“It’s a simple explanation. That’s baseball,” Freeman said. “I mean, just like we look good on paper … any team can beat you any single different night. I think we’re setting ourselves up to be on the other side of that, but we’ve still got to go out there and play. We’ve got the names to do it and the guys to do it.”

Dodgers infielder Max Muncy dismisses the “best team on paper” designation as having “not a whole lot” of meaning and pauses when asked to explain why the Dodgers have not been able to parlay their talent advantages into multiple championships.

“The answer is simple. Describing it is not simple,” Muncy said. “You almost have to go out there and act like you have no talent. You’ve got to go out there and do the fundamentals, prepare the right way, make sure you have a good game plan going into the game and you’ve got to execute it.

“You can’t just assume you can win a game because of who the name on the back of the jersey says – or even who the name on the front says. … You just can’t assume anything.”

The names are impressive. The Dodgers can field an everyday lineup featuring eight former All-Stars. With catcher Will Smith a good bet to make his first All-Star team, that could grow to a full nine by midseason. The bullpen features the active leader in saves (Craig Kimbrel) thanks to a late-spring trade and a wealth of impressive options in front of him.

If there is an early favorite to make the trip from April through October a bumpy ride for the Dodgers, it is their starting rotation. They have less depth than they have had in years and will be counting on a series of things to all go right. Buehler and Urias can’t take a step back after carrying the heaviest workloads of their lives last season, 34-year-old Clayton Kershaw needs to stay healthy, Dustin May must find his form quickly when he returns from Tommy John surgery in the second half of the season – and it would certainly help if one (or more) of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects (Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot or Landon Knack) made a precocious arrival in the big leagues.

“I think our starting rotation is less of a strength than it has been in years past,” Friedman acknowledged. “But that is a lot in how we start the year. I think with the guys we have right now and certain guys emerging, coupled with guys we either have coming back from injury as well as really talented guys in the minor leagues that we feel have a chance to knock the door down that we will be in a much better position.

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“But I think that is less of a strength than it has been in years past.”

If the lineup is as loaded as it looks (on paper) and the wealth of bullpen options live up to their potential, the starting rotation won’t have to do as much heavy lifting and the Dodgers will make good on Roberts’ guarantee.

“I don’t think we have a choice,” Freeman said of embracing the expectations that have made the Dodgers’ overwhelming preseason favorites to win it all. “We’ve got a lot of good guys. You got a city that expects to win and we expect to win too, as players. So every day you got to come in here and expect that. If it doesn’t get done that day, gotta come back and try the next day.

“I think we’ve got a good group, Dave is leading the charge and I think everyone is falling in line and just trying to win the World Series.”

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