The new league year is only a week old, but that doesn’t mean it has been quiet at Halas Hall with the official start of free agency. Readers want to know what exactly is Ryan Poles’ approach to build the Chicago Bears roster and if more could have been acquired in the Khalil Mack trade. Brad Biggs tries his best to answer those questions and more in his weekly mailbag.
I’m dumbfounded and frustrated by the Khalil Mack trade. Not on the decision to trade him, because as you said the time was now. As a fan, I honestly cannot believe Ryan Poles agreed to trade him for so little. It feels like the rookie GM got taken advantage of given that he only got one second-round pick this year and a sixth in 2023 from the Los Angeles Chargers. And the Bears keep $24 million in dead cap money? The trade is laughable. So here’s my question: What were they thinking? — Dave L., Lombard
Fair question. The vibe I got from talking to people around the league at the combine weeks ago was that the team was going to be working to trade Mack. Where there is smoke, often you find fire, and that leads me to believe Poles performed due diligence in seeing what he could get from other teams. But he hasn’t had media availability since the start of free agency — and the execution of the trade — so it’s impossible to say what factors he prioritized in dealing the biggest trade chip on the roster he inherited.
The return for Mack didn’t come as a surprise to me when considering Mack has been injured the last two seasons and the Chargers inherited the remainder of the contract. The Denver Broncos received second- and third-round picks in 2022 from the Rams in the Von Miller trade last season. We probably can agree Mack and Miller are somewhat similar players. The difference is the Broncos paid off $9 million of Miller’s remaining base salary for the 2022 season to facilitate the deal. The Rams got Miller at a bargain and with a cap hit they could handle. To accomplish something similar, the Bears could have paid Mack’s $5.5 million roster bonus that was due March 18. Had they done that, they probably could have gotten more in return. Maybe not the same return Denver received, but close.
Instead, the Chargers took on the remainder of the money — Mack is due $17.55 million this season. As far as the dead cap space, Mack would have counted $30 million against the Bears’ cap this season if he was on the roster and trading him created $28 million in space for 2023. Because the Bears repeatedly restructured Mack’s contract, it created a situation in which offloading him was going to come at a price. The Bears will deal with that in 2022 and then he’s off the books. Perhaps Poles will explain more when he speaks but that’s how I see it.
What justification is there for Ryan Poles’ nonsensical free-agent approach? He could have chosen one of three smart strategies. He could have: 1) Targeted players who were cut by other teams or who didn’t cancel out comp picks; or 2) Sat out free agency until after the comp pick deadline to stack picks for next year; or 3) Spent to acquire top talent while upgrading the team in the short term.
Instead, he signed a bunch of below-average players to contracts large enough to cancel out any compensatory picks. The team is now worse than last year, and while the Bears could have had three or four comp picks by simply sitting out free agency, now they are likely to get zero. This offseason is an unmitigated disaster. — Sanjay A., Chicago
I don’t think there is any reason to look at the Bears’ moves so far — one week into the start of the new league year — and do cartwheels. But I think you need to take a longer view and wait until about the middle of May to assess what shape the roster is in. There still is a lot of heavy lifting to do and the draft to look forward to. As I’m sure you realize, there was no quick fix for this roster either.
As far as compensatory picks go, there remains a chance the Bears could be in play for extra pick(s) in 2023. We’ll have to see how active they remain and what the future holds for players such as Akiem Hicks and potentially Andy Dalton and Germain Ifedi. Addressing your points one at a time:
1) This would have really narrowed the scope of players the Bears could have considered signing. As I wrote when free agency opened last week, the team had 32 players who became free agents and shed three more with Khalil Mack traded and Eddie Goldman and Danny Trevathan were released. Of the 32 free agents, only DeAndre Houston-Carson and Patrick Scales have been re-signed. That leaves a huge list of spots to fill, giving you an indication of what kind of timeline Poles is on for rebuilding the Bears. So narrowing the pool of possible targets to players that would not impact compensatory draft picks would have left the Bears with little to choose from.
2) With so many spots to fill, I don’t think Poles could sit on his hands and wait to sign players. He has to give the coaches some players that are fits for what they want to accomplish schematically.
3) The Bears went this route when they reached an agreement with defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi on a three-year contract. That deal fell through when Ogunjobi didn’t pass a physical. As you know, teams invariably overpay players at the outset of free agency, so being prudent here and taking a long view doesn’t alarm me.
Compensatory picks are great and give teams more depth in the draft. Historically, the Bears have done a poor job of accumulating these because they’ve drafted poorly. Teams that consistently stockpile compensatory picks generally draft well and can afford to allow some of their developed players to sign elsewhere. This wasn’t a good roster Poles inherited and some immediate action was required.
There is a chance the Bears could wind up with a comp pick in 2023 but we’ll have to see. We also need to allow the secondary phases of free agency to play out to get a better handle on what direction the team is heading. I’ve spoken to a handful of agents who have been critical of the team the last few weeks in terms of the direction it’s taking, but the Bears are coming off a 6-11 season with an old roster. I’m not sure there were splash moves that would have had the impact on the field to match the headlines, if that makes sense.
Any possibility we see a Roquan Smith extension soon? — @lavinexderozan
Anything is possible but I would be a little surprised if that’s a pressing matter for Poles with free agency and draft preparation running concurrently. Smith is under contract for this season and the Bears will have the franchise tag at their disposal in 2023, if needed. Smith is not currently represented by an agent, a factor that no doubt complicates a negotiation for a long-term contract. Perhaps this could move to the front burner for Poles in the late spring or summer. There is also a possibility the new front office and coaching staff want to see him on the field during the season before exploring the kind of contract extension it will take to secure Smith for the future. He’s one of the few players the new staff has commented on directly and I think it’s safe to assume the Bears want to make Smith part of the long-term future. There’s no rush at this point and there certainly are more pressing matters at hand for Poles.
As free agency kicks off, how can anyone have an ounce of excitement for this team? The cupboard is bare. If Justin Fields is to be the guy, how can he perform with no offensive line and a terrible corps of wide receivers? If the goal is to sign a lot of players to “prove-it” deals, the Bears are in serious trouble.
Is a Sammy Watkins, Julio Jones, Will Fuller, Antonio Brown, veteran receiver in the mix? Fields needs something legitimate. Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown are not it. What about Eric Fisher, La’el Collins? Then Larry Borom and/or Teven Jenkins moves inside? This is shaping up to be a three- to five-year rebuild wasting Fields’ development time to take advantage of his incredible skill set. — Bob B.
Collins signed with the Cincinnati Bengals and I don’t think Fisher is the same player he was earlier in his career. The wide receivers you listed are past their prime with the possible exception of Fuller, who has serious durability issues. There definitely is more work to be done on the offensive line and certainly at wide receiver. Pringle has a chance to take a step forward with more opportunities and I think he can be a crafty slot receiver for the Bears. Depending on what the team does with two Round 2 draft picks, the Bears could get a receiver with talent.
The free-agent market for wide receivers wasn’t great and the Bears aren’t going to lure any players that are prioritizing signing with a contender. Let’s see how the process plays out and what the roster looks like in mid-May. Remember, the Bears will be positioned with a ton of salary cap flexibility a year from now and some of the players they have signed to one-year deals might put down roots and become fixtures moving forward.
Is it realistic to see Chris Olave or George Pickens available for the Bears to snag in Round 2? — @chiccity3451
Olave ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds at the combine, one of many wide receivers to really impress in that test. That probably secured his place somewhere in the back end of the first round but there’s good depth at wide receiver, so it’s possible he’s pushed into the second round. Pickens likely is a Day 2 pick, somewhere in Round 2 or 3. Of the two, he’s more likely to be available.
Should the Bears look at the Honey Badger? — @thatboy_jody
Adding another highly-paid safety doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. It’s a little unusual when teams sink big money in two safeties and the Bears already have Eddie Jackson as one of the highest-paid safeties in the league. If there’s a big-money signing ahead for the Bears, I can think of at least three or four positions that are greater needs. I would be a little surprised if Ryan Poles got into bidding for Tyrann Mathieu.
Are there any surprise moves out there? Perhaps some wide receiver trade discussions with other teams. I am looking at D.K. Metcalf in Seattle or elsewhere. I doubt the price tag would be met, but curious if the Bears are making calls. — @dwaynekrak
I am sure the Bears are considering every possible option to acquire talent, but trading draft picks to acquire players they have to pay probably isn’t something they would do. Metcalf wouldn’t come cheap if Seattle was willing to trade him. Maybe their best shot at trading for a wide receiver is after the draft when teams consider making some players available.
Can the Bears sign Larry Ogunjobi to a lesser deal with incentives if no one else signs him? — @spanishharterms
Sure. Nothing precludes the Bears from revisiting a contract with Ogunjobi. That is unlikely because I believe there likely is a disagreement between the club and the player on his status. Ogunjobi was the only real loser in the deal that fell apart and it’s a shame for him (and the Bears) that the physical wasn’t completed the day the new league year began. But it’s the NFL and you learn to never say never.
I haven’t heard much about how Ryan Poles is setting up his scouting team. With the draft about one month away, who is involved in the process for the upcoming draft now that there is a new GM? Do they keep the incumbent scouting team in place until after the draft because they’ve done all the legwork for the team or does he bring in an all new team and start from scratch? If the team wants to build through the draft then the first year of a GM’s regime could be a challenge without his own selected team of scouts. — Joe C.
Poles already has made some key hires, adding Ian Cunningham as assistant general manager and hiring Trey Koziol from the Kansas City Chiefs, giving him the title of co-director of player personnel. Given Koziol’s title, that leads me to believe there is at least one more move to make. Typically, you see movement by scouts after the draft. How much change Poles will make depends on how he feels about the college staff he inherited and what potential additions he could make. Most of the time, scouts are not free to move unless they are coming out of contract. Poles said he was impressed with the group as a whole when he met with media at the combine and he has been able to add a couple advisers he trusts and knows well. Poles and Koziol were teammates at Boston College before working together in Kansas City.
If the Bears were looking for fast and athletic players, why didn’t they sign Myles Jack to play next to Roquan Smith? — @tlrob77
The Bears got a guy who is fast and athletic in Nichols Morrow. He played pretty darn well for the Raiders in 2019 and 2020 and their defense took a hit, especially on third down, this past season when he missed with an ankle injury. Morrow has the speed and athleticism to be a three-down player and I think he’s got some upside.
Likelihood of the Bears signing Ryan Bates? — @cplur3456
The Bears are in the mix for the Buffalo Bills offensive lineman. He started a visit with the team Tuesday, as I understand it, and that is expected to continue into Wednesday. Bates is a restricted free agent and previously visited the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots. The expectation is he will sign an offer sheet with one of those teams. If/when that happens, the Bills will have five days to match the offer or lose him without compensation. Offers Bates receives probably will be somewhat similar. He’s only got four regular-season starts (with two more in the playoffs), so it’s a projection. Unless a team wants to really pay for Bates, he’ll likely seek a short-term deal to put himself in line for a bigger pay day in another two years or so. To me, it will come down to what situation Bates likes best if the money is relatively similar. We’ll see what happens.
Do you think Christian Kirk’s deal impacted the Bears’ ability to sign a second-tier receiver like JuJu Smith-Schuster or D.J. Chark? Or were they always going to focus more on the lines? — @ericjen98678943
No. Kirk was at the top of the market in available wide receivers. Smith-Schuster signed a one-year contract with the Chiefs. It has a base value of $3.25 million with an additional $7.5 million available in incentives. Byron Pringle signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the Bears that has an additional $2 million in upside. Chark got a one-year, $10 million contract from the Detroit Lions with $3 million upside. Kirk blew the market away with a four-year, $72 million deal that includes $12 million in incentives. Kirk’s deal is completely different and I don’t think it impacted the others at all.
Do you think any of the Bears position groups rate above average compared to the rest of the league? I’m thinking maybe kicker and running backs, which means this is going to take a while, right? — @mike__chicago
I’d say the Bears have a really good foundation to build around at linebacker with Roquan Smith and Nicholas Morrow. That’s definitely above average, in my opinion. Cairo Santos is also above average as a kicker, you’re right about that. I think the running backs are closer to league average than most people. You can win with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. You’re not going to win because of them. No question there is a lot of work remaining and it will be a process that requires patience.
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