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For a glimpse at Orange County’s future, look at down-ballot races

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Orange County, once known as the “GOP’s ATM,” has been voting for Democrats for president since 2016. Hillary Clinton flipped the county blue that cycle for the first time since 1936, and President Joe Biden expanded on her lead in 2020.

Yet a closer look at key down-ballot races shows that while the county has been moving blue to some degree, the shift is not nearly that large. Many OC voters are choosing Republicans for Congress but are not voting Donald Trump for president. If this trend continues, it may be a sign that the county hasn’t shifted to Democrats as much as the presidential results would imply, and it could serve as a glimpse at OC’s political future once Trump is out of the limelight.

From 2016 to 2020, two congressional districts highlighted this ticket-splitting trend most clearly: the 45th, which included inland cities stretching from Villa Park in the north to Mission Viejo in the south, and the 48th, which was comprised of OC’s coastal cities from Seal Beach to Laguna Niguel.

In 2016, these voters delivered double-digit victories for Republicans Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher. But voters in these GOP strongholds expressed deep discomfort with Trump and instead chose Clinton at the presidential level, pushing the county blue.

Two years later, while holding on to their Republican roots and opting for John Cox over Gavin Newsom, many voters split their tickets and voted for Democrats to replace Walters and Rohrabacher with Katie Porter and Harley Rouda as part of a nationwide, anti-Trump blue wave.

In 2020, the voters in these districts again showed more favor for Republicans down ballot than they did Trump. Although Democrat Katie Porter was re-elected in the 45th, she won by a smaller margin than Joe Biden did. And in the 48th, while voters picked Biden for president, they also sent Republican Michelle Steel to Congress in place of Rouda.

Orange County’s congressional districts morphed substantially following redistricting in 2021 with both the district numbers and the cities within changed from the prior map. Most of the old inland 45th district is now the 40th, and the coastal 48th is now primarily the 47th. Under these new configurations, Orange County’s Republican leanings appear even more prominently. 

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Republican Young Kim won handily in the inland 40th in 2022, while Porter, whose home was redrawn into the coastal 47th, eked out a victory over her Republican challenger. And like 2018, both of these districts signaled their continued GOP allegiance by picking the Republican for governor.

Looking to the upcoming election, Republican congressional candidates may once again outrun Donald Trump. And yet again, Trump may point to the difference between his vote totals and congressional totals as evidence of fraud. But past races have demonstrated that many Orange County voters just don’t like Trump specifically. It’s not fraud; it’s the candidate. 

Kamala Harris may deliver Democrats three straight presidential election victories in the county, prompting pundits and analysts to label OC a “blue county” going forward. By focusing on the presidential race, however, this type of analysis would be missing the bigger picture. Instead, look to the 40th and 47th congressional districts for a glimpse at the county’s political future. If Republicans at that level outperform Trump, then Orange County is primed to return to the Republican column in a post-Trump future.Matt Germer is the director of the R Street Institute’s governance program.

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