When California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in early October, I wrote in these pages that Butler’s appointment would likely set up a “messy” 2024 California Senate primary, and with less than two months before primary, all signs point to a fiercely competitive, potentially ‘messy’ race in the nation’s largest state. 

Nearly all recent polling shows that current U.S. Representative Adam Schiff, a 12-term Congressman endorsed by Democratic establishment figures such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi, is leading the field, while the battle for second place in the top-two primary is virtually tied between current U.S. Rep. Kate Porter and former Los Angeles Dodgers player Steve Garvey. 

Indeed, Schiff leads the extremely crowded field – 27 candidates will appear on the ballot in March – with slightly more than one-fifth (21%) of the vote. Porter (17%) and Garvey (13%) round out the top three, according to a recent poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times and the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Factoring in the poll’s +/- 2% margin of error, it is a very close race between Porter and Garvey for second. 

With that in mind, Progressive U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee cannot be counted out, despite her fourth place finish in the aforementioned LA Times/Berkeley poll.

Just last month, Porter and Lee were virtually tied for third place in a different poll, conducted by Politico/Morning Consult, which showed Porter at 17% and Lee at 14%, essentially a tie given the poll’s +/- 3% margin of error. Notably, Politico/Morning Consult included “leaners” – those initially undecided but are thinking about supporting a particular candidate, which helped push Garvey (19%) into second place.

Moreover, just this Wednesday, Lee won the endorsement of California newspapers under the McClatchy umbrella, and despite not having the financial backing that Schiff and Porter have, Lee has a not-insignificant chance of sneaking into second place in deep-blue California. 

To that point, Lee has shown herself to be a standout on one hot-button topic where the candidates have diverged: The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. While Schiff has fully lined up behind President Biden’s opposition to a ceasefire, and Porter has only recently made a subtle shift to support a “bilateral ceasefire,” Lee began her calls for a ceasefire on October 8th, before Israel had even begun its ground operation in Gaza, and has been a vocal opponent of U.S. aid to Israel.

Whether or not Lee’s strident opposition to Israel’s military retaliation plays a significant role in the March primary largely depends on the course of the war, but it is worth noting that nearly 6-in-10 (59%) likely California primary voters believe the U.S. is either doing the right amount to help our ally (40%) or not doing enough (19%), according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll.

An interesting candidate to watch between now and the primary is Steve Garvey, a Republican who has run an incredibly minimalist campaign, but who has widespread name recognition from nearly two decades playing for the Dodgers and Padres. 

According to the LA Times/UC Berkeley poll, if supporters of the other GOP candidates coalesce around Garvey, he would not only have enough votes to finish in the top two, but given the splintered Democratic vote, could end up as the top vote-getter. 

Were Garvey to finish in the top spot, or in the top two, even despite the lopsided general election that any Republican would face in California, it would be a coup for the state’s GOP, who have long been at a disadvantage in California due to the California’s solid blue nature.

Given the long odds that Garvey – or any Republican – would face in a general election, California’s Senate election will likely come down to either Schiff, Porter, or even Lee, as whichever Democrat emerges has a considerable advantage in November. 

Further, due to California’s primary system – one primary for candidates from both parties – Garvey’s strong performance in the polls has the potential to cause a messy intraparty fight between Porter and Lee for second place.

To that end, Schiff seems well positioned to emerge as the top Democrat in the race, whether Garvey sneaks into November or not. Schiff leads Porter by 10-points among registered Democrats (35% to 25%) and leads Lee by more than a 2-1 margin, 35% to 14%, per the LA Times/UC Berkeley poll.

Further, Schiff’s advantage among older voters – typically the most likely to vote – is solid. He leads Porter by 4-points among voters aged 50-64 years old (20% to 16%), and has a commanding 19-point lead (32% to 13%) among voters 65 years of age or older. 

In terms of Democrats’ fight for second place, Lee would appear to be at a significant disadvantage, despite the McClatchy endorsement. Among voters who consider themselves ‘strongly liberal’, ostensibly Lee’s base, she trails Porter 35% to 17%.

Taken together, Schiff is seemingly poised to secure at least one of the top two spots due to his lead over the rest of the field, so all eyes should be on a potentially messy fight between Reps. Porter and Lee, who both must consolidate their own support and try to expand their support, likely at the expense of each other. 

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Whether or not either Porter can hold onto her spot in second almost entirely depends on whether California Republicans coalesce around Garvey, as well as whether or not Lee’s presence eats into Porter’s support on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. 

And make no mistake, the presence of a popular Republican, who even leads Schiff in a number of California regions, including Orange County (20% to 12%) and the San Joaquin Valley (22% to 19%), will add to the pressure on Porter and Lee. 

Ultimately, with roughly six weeks to go until the primary, the real race is the fight for second, where two sitting U.S. Representatives from the same party will be forced to compete with each other in an intraparty fight if they hope to keep a Republican challenger out of the top two.

Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.