Dozens of businesses across Southern California that churn out popular baked goods, smoked meats and other products soon could be required to swap their gas-powered commercial ovens for emissions-free electric versions under a set of rules due for a vote by the local air quality district this summer.

Major tortillerias, food dehydrators, and coffee and nut roasters also would have to upgrade equipment to reduce how much nitrogen oxide, or NOx, they produce under the proposed regulations.

It’s the latest touchpoint in a growing culture war over how we cook our food, as mounting research links gas and wood-burning stoves with both health and environmental harms.

The limits on commercial ovens are aimed at helping Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties — a region now home to the worst pollution in the country — hit federally mandated air quality targets by cutting in half the 0.2 tons of NOx these company’s 218 ovens now emit each day, according to South Coast Air Quality Management District. NOx is a major contributor to smog, which can cause or worsen asthma and other breathing problems.

“The implications are big,” said Adrian Martinez with Earthjustice, one of the environmental organizations pushing for stricter air quality standards.

Some of the businesses that could be affected by the new rules, however, are raising concerns about the prospect of higher utility bills and whether equipment that meets both the proposed emissions limits and their needs is even available.

“If there’s a way out there to make this happen, we’re not opposed to it,” said Frank Coser, senior director of manufacturing with Anita’s Mexican Foods, which makes tortilla chips, taco shells and veggie straws out of a factory in San Bernardino. “But what they’re asking is basically to do something that’s not possible.”

Coser said these rules are the latest example of California “getting to be a rough place to do business,” adding, “If we have to go to Nevada or Arizona or somewhere else, off we go.”

But the proposed regulations, which evolved after a series of stakeholder meetings, call for phasing in the requirements over time, noted Sarah Rees, who helps oversee rule development at South Coast AQMD. They also offer leeway for sectors such as tortilla makers and nut roasters, where the technology isn’t quite there yet for them to eliminate all emissions.

Rees said she’s confident electric oven models eventually will be available to close any remaining gaps. And if a business can’t find a manufacturer that can help meet the planned emissions limits within the proposed time frame, she said, “We would work with them.”

The pending regulations for commercial ovens grew out of South Coast AQMD’s 2022 Air Quality Management Plan, which is a comprehensive strategy the air district spent years developing to meet stricter pollution limits passed down from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The air district learned that to hit the EPA’s clean air targets this region will need a 67% reduction in NOx emissions by 2037. And since some NOx comes from fires and other sources that can’t be regulated, the agency determined it needs to mandate zero-emission or near-zero-emission technologies across all of the sectors it can impact.

Most NOx emissions come from mobile sources such as trucks, trains, planes and ships, which are already heavily targeted for emission reductions at the local, state and federal levels. But a fifth of harmful NOx emissions come from stationary sources, such as power plants, home ovens and big commercial ovens, which spew the pollutant out as they burn methane-rich natural gas.

The air quality district regulates equipment for these stationary sources and regularly updates rules for each sector. Commercial ovens were due for review, Rees said, so by the luck of the draw the sector is the first to face rules that would require some businesses to completely eliminate emissions over the next decade or so. Others would have to dramatically reduce their NOx emissions over the same time period.

The first phase of the proposed rules would require companies to start immediately replacing burners that have been on their gas-powered ovens for 10 years or more with newer versions that are much better at controlling NOx emissions.

Coffee beans are roasted at the Klatch Coffee facility in Rancho Cucamonga, CA, on Tuesday, October 17, 2017. The company is among 97 in Southern California that could be impacted by new rules limiting emissions from commercial ovens. (Staff photo by Jennifer Cappuccio Maher/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin/SCNG)

Phase two would start in 2027. Under that rule, when gas ovens need to be replaced, companies with options for electric versions on the market would have to start making the switch.

The 97 companies that would be impacted by the potential rule change include big names, such as See’s Candy, Vons, Frito-Lay, Ralphs, Mission Foods and The Cheesecake Factory. Most have so far held back from publicly commenting on the regulations. But Bimbo Bakeries, which bakes muffins at plants in Placentia and Montebello, wrote to the air quality district expressing disappointment over their industry being “singled out for the first ever Zero Emission regulation.” The American Bakers Association shared similar concerns, also noting that bakeries are responsible for a small fraction of the NOx emissions in the region.

For Anita’s Mexican Foods, Coser said their main concern is to keep their doors open and to keep handing out paychecks to the 300 employees at their San Bernardino plant. But he said they do care about doing their part to reduce emissions. At their plant in Tennessee, for example, Coser said they chose to use burners that control NOx even though local and state rules there would let them “pollute 10 tons a day.”

There are four major manufacturers that make ovens for operations like theirs, according to Coser. He said two have already been out to their plant and said they don’t make equipment that would meet even the first phase of the proposed rules.

The issue, Coser said, is heat. To make their products, he said their ovens need to get up to 750 degrees, which he’s told just isn’t possible with reduced NOx or electric ovens now available. And since nowhere else requires such reduced emissions now, he said manufacturers aren’t motivated to develop equipment for a handful of customers in Southern California.

But such developments aren’t out of reach from a technology perspective, Martinez said.

“Developing electric versions of this equipment isn’t rocket science, as much as some in the methane industry and others want to say it is,” he said.

And with millions of dollars in federal and state money floating around to help manufacturers and companies electrify their operations, Martinez said he hopes Southern California can force open the doors for these businesses to go electric.

If options for cleaner ovens were available, Coser said his other concern is the cost, availability and reliability of the electric grid. His plant operates 24 hours a day, meaning manufacturing would be interrupted by any outages or blackouts. And solar power isn’t an option, he said, noting that the company currently is building a solar project that will meet about a third of its energy needs — and that’s without electric ovens.

Another issue is cost. The price of electricity is projected to run about nine times more than natural gas per kilowatt hour over the next decade, according to a South Coast AQMD analysis. However, the agency says electric ovens are about 20% more efficient at using energy than combustion units, offsetting some of that price difference. And for smokehouses, in particular, the air district’s research suggests it will be very cost effective for companies to switch to all-electric equipment.

A remaining concern is how long it will take utilities to help companies with any infrastructure upgrades needed to connect electric stoves to the grid. Rees said they’ve seen some long delays as companies try to install charging infrastructure for electric vehicles, for example. That’s why these rules are phased in as equipment ages out, she said, so demand won’t hit all at once. And the proposed rules also allow for a 24-month extension if the utility can’t power them up in time.

It’s a tough line for the air district to stride. Move too slow or give companies too many exemptions and they’ll risk running afoul of EPA rules and extending health and environmental risks for Southern Californians. Move too fast or make limits too strict and they’ll push businesses like Anita’s Mexican Foods out of California to a state with looser air quality rules, which won’t help the environment we all share.

“Maybe it might be a little bit better for the folks who live down there by the beach to have clear air when they look out their living room windows,” Coser said. “But all you’re doing is moving a problem.”

The air district is due to release a draft of the proposed rules July 5. They will then go before the board Aug. 4 for a vote.

From there, Rees said the agency will look to tackle other stationary sources of NOx emissions. That includes what’s sure to be an even more contentious source: stoves in commercial and residential buildings.