The summer of 2023 might be fairly compared to the summer of 1823, if the North American Electric Reliability Corporation has it right about power outages to come. The common ground between the two would be the lack of electricity.

According to the NERC, the country’s Western Interconnection, which includes California, much of the Western U.S., and parts of Canada and Mexico, “is experiencingheightened reliability risks heading into the summer of 2023 due to increased supply-side shortages along with the ongoing drought impacts in some areas, continued wildfire threats, and expanding heat wave events.”

If peak demand doesn’t exceed normal levels, then there should be adequate supply, says the NERC. But optimism evaporates if conditions become more difficult, and if the weatherman is right, they will be. Forecasts are calling for a warmer-than-usual California summer. It will be particularly hot in Southern California, where roughly 60% of the state’s 39 million residents live. The California Independent System Operator hasn’t issued a flex alert – “a call to consumers to voluntarily cut back on electricity and shift electricity use to off-peak hours” – since September. But its social media department would be smart to be ready for a busy season. CAISO issued five flex alerts in 2020, eight in 2021, and six last year.

Don’t blame the weather, though. Blame policy. California’s collision of its electric-vehicle mandate and its legislated transition to a zero-carbon power grid by 2045 isn’t going to cause sparks as much as it will bring darkness.

Today there are fewer than 900,000 electric vehicles on California’s roads. By 2035, there are expected to be more than 13 million, and by 2045 almost 22 million, because both the governor and the state Air Resources Board have agreed to outlaw the sale of new gasoline-powered automobiles. Every EV that replaces an internal-combustion-engine car represents another bite taken out of a power grid that’s going to be chewed up.

Because of increased demand for charging electric vehicles, fully manufactured by public policy, California will fall 21 percent short of the power needed to meet the demand according to a new Pacific Research Institute report. However, the gap will likely be even wider as this projected shortfall does not include the additional need for more power caused by the conversion of water heaters, stoves, and other appliances from natural gas to electricity.

Planning an accelerated, warp-speed construction schedule for renewables infrastructure so there will be enough power has appeal, but is little assurance the job will be done.

First, transmission capacity will need to be roughly tripled by 2050, a number of state agencies have said. This won’t take years to accomplish, it will take decades and more than just a couple of them.

Second, adding solar and wind farms, and connecting their generated power to the grid with transmission lines will encounter the usual California can’t-build hurdles. Not-in-my-back-yard resistance, much of it from the environmentalists who’ve demanded the closure of natural gas and nuclear power plants, is increasing along with plans to build. It’s a trend recently seen in the Midwest, where voters rejected two proposals to site wind farms. Anyone who believes that this state will be more accommodating should consider that both Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties have banned wind turbines in their unincorporated areas.

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If California doesn’t have blackouts this summer, it won’t be due to policymakers’ forward thinking, though they will take credit. It will be because heavy snow and rain during the winter swelled reservoirs that feed hydroelectric plants that hadn’t been producing power during the dry spell.

There’s no reason to expect this will happen again, though. After 2045, large dams, which provide 6% of the state’s electrical power, will no longer be contributors, as they are not considered a worthy renewable resource under California’s zero-carbon plan. They are, says the Stanford News Service, “a bogeyman to many environmentalists” even though they “could actually play a significant role in feeding the world more sustainably” in addition to being an important contributor to the power mix needed to run a modern economy.

Gov. Gavin Newsom can brag as much and as often as he wants about the green future happening first in California, that the state is “America’s coming attraction.” But he can’t speak into existence the perfect conditions that are necessary for California to be all-EV and at the same time avoid power shortages. The conflict is irreconcilable.

Kerry Jackson is a fellow with the Center for California Reform at the Pacific Research Institute.  Dr. Wayne Winegarden is a PRI senior fellow in business and economics.  Download their new study at www.pacificresearch.org.