Rep. Katie Porter jumped from political loser to first-time political winner in 2018, when ballots counted in the days after polls closed in that year’s midterm election vaulted her ahead of then-incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters to take California’s 45th congressional district.

It’s possible that the reverse could happen this week. Or not. The latest vote tally for the 2022 midterm shows only one sure thing: The race for the 47th congressional district, between Porter, D-Irvine, and Republican challenger Scott Baugh, is a seesaw battle that might take days to resolve.

Consider how the vote shifted over the course of about 24 hours:

In the first batch of ballots counted and made public a few minutes after the voting period ended on the evening of Tuesday, Nov. 8, Porter held a clear – if not overwhelming – lead over Baugh. But in a second tally released later that night, that margin virtually disappeared, with Porter leading by just six-tenths of a percentage point.

Now, in the newest vote count, released Wednesday, Nov. 9 by the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Porter’s lead over Baugh has expanded slightly, to about 1 percentage point.

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Election Results: OC Register

It’s unclear what pattern, if any, will emerge as more votes are counted.

County data shows nearly 629,000 ballots have been cast, and about 404,000 more are still to be counted, though only a fraction of both numbers applies to the race between Porter and Baugh. County data also shows that the remaining votes include a mix of mail-in ballots received by mail prior to Election Day, ballots that were left in drop boxes and other ballots that were dropped off at voting centers before or on Election Day.

In recent elections, in-person voting favored GOP candidates and mail-in voting favored Democrats. But several recent events – the state’s decision to send mail-in ballots to every voter; the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; the 2020 push from former President Donald Trump to encourage his supporters to vote in person; the rain that hit Southern California on Tuesday, Nov. 8 – might have obliterated any previous patterns.

Both candidates want every vote counted.

On Wednesday, before the new vote counts were released, Porter’s team issued this statement:

“We’re proud of the race we ran and the work we did. Our team knocked on over 125,000 doors, made over 640,000 phone calls, and engaged people in every part and pocket of the district. There are still tens of thousands of ballots left to be counted, and our campaign respects Orange County voters and will wait patiently for the results. We know from Congresswoman Porter’s 2018 race that this process can take several days, and it’s essential that every vote be counted.”

And late Tuesday Baugh told the Register:

“Early returns always favor Democrats. The race will be substantially tightened by the end of the night. We may not know the results for several days.”

The candidates offer sharp contrasts for a slightly Democrat-leaning district that runs from Irvine to cover much of Orange County’s coastal communities, including Laguna Beach, Newport Beach and part of Huntington Beach.

Porter, 48, a former law professor from UC Irvine, is a leading Democratic voice in the House, a fundraising powerhouse who has a national reputation for grilling business leaders and others in public hearings shared over the internet.

Baugh, 60, is a former Assemblyman (1995-2000) and long-time political insider who has led the Republican Party of Orange County and been a key fundraiser for Republican politicians.

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