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Election 2022: Vote update suggests state Senate races in O.C. are set for November

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The latest ballot tallies for the five state Senate seats that touch Orange County suggest primary voters have narrowed their fields to two candidates, and that they prefer incumbents or well-known challengers over newcomers.

Whether that preference will hold through November, when the top two candidates face off in a general election that is likely to see higher turnout and a slightly more liberal group of voters, isn’t yet clear.

Here’s how the five seats were shaping up after the results were released late Wednesday, June 8, when about two thirds of all votes had been counted:

30th Senate District

State Sen. Bob Archuleta, a Democrat from Pico Rivera, and Republican newcomer Mitch Clemmons, who owns a plumbing business in Fullerton, were virtually deadlocked and set to face off again in November.

Despite the close tally, Archuleta remains a vulnerable favorite heading into November.

Partisanship favors Archuleta. The other two candidates in the race — Whittier council member Henry Bouchot and local water board member Martha Camacho Rodriguez — are Democrats who, so far, have taken in more than one in four votes. What’s more, voter registration in the district, which covers southeast Los Angeles County along with most of Brea, favors Democrats by 28 points.

That said, Archuleta has faced a sexual harassment lawsuit from a former employee. Archuleta denies the claims. It’s unclear if, or how, the dustup will play in November.

32nd Senate District

As new vote tallies have come in, Republican Assemblyman Kelly Seyarto has seen his lead over Democrat Brian Nash widen.

Both candidates are from Murrietta and both want to represent a four-county district that runs from Yorba Linda in Orange County and Chino Hills in San Bernardino County to parts of western Riverside County and and San Diego County. Both face no other opponents, so both will advance to November.

But Seyarto is an early favorite to win the seat. He holds a strong lead in primary returns, and the district shows a strong Republican lean, with GOP voters outnumbering Democrats by about eight points.

34th Senate District

As new vote tallies have been released, the spread between Democratic incumbent and primary leader Tom Umberg and Republican challenger Rhonda Shader has narrowed.

Still, Umberg, holds two clear advantages when the two-candidate field faces off again in November. Umberg has money and a track record while Shader, mayor of Placentia, is working to establish both. Also, registration in the district — which runs from Whitter to La Habra to Santa Ana — favors Democrats by 26 points.

36th Senate District

GOP Assemblywoman Janet Nguyen’s lead over Democrat Kim Carr, a Huntington Beach council member, has grown as votes have been tallied.

Also, the context for the race suggests that Nguyen’s front-runner status could hold through November. Nguyen is a former Orange County Supervisor who has held offices in Sacramento, on and off, for several years. She’s also got a fundraising advantage over Carr and an advantage in party registration; Republicans outnumber Democrats by about three points in a district that runs from Seal Beach to San Clemente and sprawls inland to include Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, and Buena Park plus Cerritos in Los Angeles County.

38th Senate District

Vote tallies released late Wednesday confirm what was clear on Tuesday night — the top two candidates, Encinitas Mayor Catherine Blakespear, a Democrat, and Republican Matt Gunderson, a former car dealership owner from Ladera Ranch, are all-but-certain to face off again in November.

The numbers suggest that the third candidate in the district, Democrat Joe Kerr, a retired fire captain from Coto de Caza, isn’t going to jump into the top two.

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Blakespear has some advantages heading into November. She and Kerr combined to take well over half the votes cast in the primary. And the district, which starts in Mission Viejo and runs along the coast to end just below San Diego County’s Mission Bay, favors Democrats by more than five points.

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