With only a few exceptions, the vote tallies released late Wednesday for the nine state Assembly seats that touch Orange County now show which primary candidates will advance to the decisive ballot in November.
Here’s a breakdown of the races based on the latest vote counts, along with some context about what might play out in the general election, when turnout is expected to be higher than in the primary and the group of voters slightly more liberal.
In at least two Assembly primaries the final lineup could change over the next few days, when more votes are counted.
68th Assembly District
The most recent tallies suggest it’s all but certain that Anaheim City Councilman Avelino Valencia, a Democrat who works as a district director for retiring Assemblyman Tom Daly, will be one of the two candidates for the seat in November.
It’s less clear who he’ll face.
Republican small business owner Mike Tardif, who’s endorsed by the state GOP, still leads fellow Republican, commercial decorator James Wallace, though not by a decisive number. A fourth candidate, progressive political activist Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente of Santa Ana, also holds a slim chance of slipping into the run-off field.
Any Republican facing Valencia in November faces long odds. Registration in the district, which includes much of Santa Ana, Anaheim and Orange, favors Democrats by about 30 points.
70th Assembly District
Late vote counts also show a likely primary winner in the Assembly seat centered around Little Saigon. Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen, the only Democrat in a six-candidate field, has held a lead since returns first were announced Tuesday night.
But the latest tallies also suggest at least three of the five other candidates – all Republicans – could finish in the top two. Westminster Mayor Tri Ta is in second, as of late Wednesday, followed by Westminster Councilwoman Kimberly Ho and Fountain Valley Councilman Ted Bui. But the numbers suggest it’s possible for any of those three to finish in second place and move on to the general election.
Two other challengers – Jason Gray, a Westminster city commissioner, and Emily Hibard, a businesswoman from Los Alamitos – appear to be out of contention.
It’s unclear who will be a favorite in November. Registration in the district favors Democrats by four points.
In six other Assembly seats, most primary questions are answered.
59th Assembly District
Three-term Assemblyman Phillip Chen, R-Brea, was the only name on the 59th Assembly ballot Tuesday night, and he has received all of the votes tabulated to date.
But Chen will face an opponent in November. In recent weeks, two residents qualified as write-in candidates – David Naranjo, a 46-year-old Brea resident who owns a real estate appraisal business and is chair of the Libertarian Party of Orange County, and Leon Sit, a 19-year-old engineering student at UCLA who lives in North Tustin and helps run a blog about political data. Whichever of those two gets the most write-in votes – which are expected to be announced late in the vote-counting process – will appear on the November ballot.
The district covers northeast Orange County and Chino Hills in San Bernardino County, and favors Republicans by seven points.
64th Assembly District
The most recent tallies show Republican Raul Ortiz Jr., a pest control manager from La Mirada, and Downey Mayor Blanca Pacheco, a Democrat, are likely to face each other again in November.
But while Ortiz is the leader in the primary, Pacheco probably is the favorite for the general.
The other four candidates – Cudahy Mayor Elizabeth Alcantar, La Habra Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, Norwalk school board member Roberto “Rob” Cancio and Norwalk Vice Mayor Ana Valencia – are all Democrats. And registration in the district, which covers portions of southern Los Angeles County plus La Habra in Orange County, favors Democrats by more than 30 points.
67th Assembly District
Tallies show Democratic Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva and Republican Soo Yoo, president of the ABC Unified School District’s board, will finish first and second in the primary and face off again in November.
Quirk-Silva is heavily favored to ultimately win a fifth term in the district that covers north-central Orange County along with Cerritos in Los Angeles County and favors Democrats by nearly 18 points.
71st Assembly District
The race in a district that straddles Orange and Riverside counties will feature a rarity in deeply blue California – an all-GOP field in November. The only two candidates in the primary, Temecula Mayor Matt Rahn and Trabuco Canyon activist Kate Sanchez, are Republicans.
Vote tallies show Rahn finishing ahead of Sanchez in the primary, but the numbers are close enough to suggest a competitive race in November. Registration in the district favors the GOP by 10 points.
72nd Assembly District
The latest tallies show what’s been clear since the first votes were announced Tuesday evening: The top two candidates, Democrat Judie Mancuso of Laguna Beach, and Republican Diane Dixon of Newport Beach, are going to finish in a tight race for the top two spots and move on to a rematch in November.
When they do, Dixon, who sits on the Newport Beach City Council, probably is the favorite over Mancuso, who founded a nonprofit that’s helped change laws around animal rights.
Republican Benjamin Yu, a businessman and appointed commissioner in Lake Forest, is in third place in the primary, eating up a share of GOP votes that might go to Dixon in the general election. And registration in the district, which stretches from Seal Beach south to Laguna Beach, plus a narrow carve-out east to Lake Forest, favors Republicans by about six points.
73rd Assembly District
Tallies show two-term Democratic incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris holding a consistent primary lead over three-term GOP incumbent Steven Choi, but not by a big enough total to define a clear leader heading into November.
But if the primary vote isn’t a hint, party affiliation might be. Registration in the district, which covers Irvine, Costa Mesa, and Tustin, favors Democrats by about 13 points.
74th Assembly District
The outcome of the primary already is clear: GOP Assemblywoman Laurie Davies and San Clemente Mayor Pro Tem Chris Duncan, a Democrat, will advance to the November general election.
After that, the race is a mystery.
Late tallies show Davies leading Duncan, but not by a gap that says anything clear about what will happen in November. The district, which covers parts of south coastal Orange County and a coastal stretch of San Diego County, stretching from Laguna Niguel to Oceanside, is a virtual dead heat in terms of voter registration.