LOS ANGELES ― Twice this season, Will Smith has hit a no-doubt home run that became a home run. Another four times, the Dodgers’ catcher has hit a no-doubt home run that did not become a home run. It’s all part of the Great Baseball Mystery of the 2022 season: There is doubt where none ought to exist.
Smith, 27, is merely sharing the frustration of hitters across the game. The home-run rate is below one per team per game for the first time since 2014. A newer, less lively baseball, combined with the installation of humidors in all 30 parks for the first time, is the likely culprit. The effects have been dramatic.
What separates Smith, 27, is his affectionless reaction to it all. Many hitters will telegraph the Statcast metrics in real-time through their dour expressions, alerting fans and television viewers that their launch angle and exit velocity predicted better things than a fly ball to the warning track.
Each time Smith hit into an out that would have been a home run in years past (April 15 and April 17 at home against the Reds, April 22 in San Diego, April 25 in Phoenix), he’s jogged back to the dugout wearing all the emotion of a goldfish. You would never know Smith is swimming upstream to the tune of a .246 batting average and .404 slugging percentage ― below his career averages of .261 and .518.
“There’s a lot of frustration in this game,” Smith said. “There’s a lot of failure. Dealing with it is part of the game. So yeah, it would be nice to have a few more homers on the board like normally. It’s not happened this year. MLB could change the ball at some point, it’ll start flying again ― who knows. I just go day by day.”
Smith’s unflappable attitude is one reason why Dodgers manager Dave Roberts moved him up in the lineup. Since Sunday, he has been the team’s cleanup hitter, a spot historically reserved for superstar sluggers.
The Dodgers’ biggest stars bat at the top of the lineup. Hitting behind Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Trea Turner is a luxury that comes with many opportunities to drive in runs, and Smith approaches the task dutifully. What he lacks in flamboyance, he makes up for with persistence.
“He’s been a victim of some bad luck but he doesn’t change his approach,” Roberts said of Smith. “There’s no panic. Very unflappable. That’s why for a manager, the more players you can trust and that are dependable, you feel better running him out there.”
Smith’s best trait as a hitter ― his selectivity ― is one the Dodgers prize. No Dodger is seeing more pitches in an average plate appearance than Smith (4.54). Only four qualified hitters in baseball have been more patient this season. That makes Smith relatively difficult to strike out, with only 11 in his first 67 plate appearances.
“When we need to move the ball forward, he can do that,” Roberts said. “He has the ability to check down and hit a ball the other way. When you’re not swinging the bat well individually, collectively, you have to be able to use the other side of the field. Will is as good at that as anyone on our club.”
Therein lies the other reason for Smith’s promotion in the lineup: his teammates left Roberts with little choice.
Justin Turner ended the Dodgers’ homestand with a .481 on-base plus slugging percentage, better than only nine other qualified hitters in baseball. His walk rate is down. His frustration is up. His single in Wednesday’s game against the Giants ended an 0-for-17 slump. Roberts said he plans to keep Turner, 37, in the No. 6 spot in the batting order until he can figure things out.
Max Muncy is still drawing walks, but he has been similarly snakebitten when coaxing fly balls to leave the park. Unlike Smith, driving the ball to the opposite field is not Muncy’s forte ― a shortcoming reflected in his .151 batting average. After Wednesday’s game against San Francisco, when he was approached by reporters to discuss his 2-for-4 breakout at the plate, Muncy politely declined.
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“I’m superstitious,” he said.
Muncy was worried another slump would follow if he discussed his good performance with the media.
Smith seems to have little time for superstition. A catcher has more time to survey the surface of a baseball than most position players; Smith can observe the changes every time he throws a ball back to the mound. He believes the seams on the baseball are “a little bigger” this year compared to last.
Perhaps that is enough to convince Smith that all those warning-track fly balls are not his fault.
“I try to stick to my approach,” he said. “It’s the same approach it’s been the last few years, depending on which pitcher it is. Just hit the ball hard. Wherever it’s going to go, it’s going to go. You’re not trying to aim for homers.”