You don’t question the outlay at this point, not when the investments by Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg of Micky Arison’s wealth turned into a ticket to the Eastern Conference finals and with a win on Sunday a trip to the NBA Finals.
The math worked, with the Miami Heat’s ledger producing a memorable regular season and the exhilarating playoff run.
But much like the crypto markets that led to a new name for the Heat’s arena, there continually is a volatility in perceived value of assets, something apparent this season with the contract of Duncan Robinson in one direction and of Max Strus in the other.
So if these all were one-year contracts, each allowed to be evaluated solely on productivity this season and expected value, how exactly do the Heat’s books set up going forward?
To that end, assistance was solicited from Bobby Marks, the former Brooklyn Nets executive and current ESPN analyst who also has an affiliation with profix.ai, a sports probability platform.
As Heat-Celtics headed to Sunday’s Game 7 showdown at FTX Arena, Marks was asked by the South Florida Sun Sentinel to project the 2022-23 salary value for 12 prime Heat roster components, with most already under contract.
Victor Oladipo: Marks estimated Oladipo’s value for 2022-23 at the $10.3 million mid-level exception, after Oladipo played for the $1.7 million (cap hit) minimum this season.
Because the Heat have Oladipo’s Bird Rights, they could offer such a salary for 2022-23 without utilizing an exception.
The question would be whether they would bid that high, or whether Oladipo would see the mid-level as too low after the work put in to get back into the game and back on the market. The playoff contributions have been real, but also uneven.
Duncan Robinson: Marks estimated Robinson’s value for 2022-23 at the $6.3 million taxpayer mid-level exception.
The actual figure is moot, with Robinson under contract for 2022-23 at $16.9 million.
What it means is that Robinson holds a negative salary value, meaning the Heat likely would have to attach a sweetener to offload his salary, perhaps a first-round pick. Friday was another example of limited big-moment trust.
Max Strus: Marks estimated Robinson’s value for 2022-23 at $12 million.
This is where a proactive approach in locking Strus into a two-year deal off his two-way contact proved prescient. Strus is under contract for next season at $1.8 million.
Friday’s revival showed just how much Strus can mean to the Heat at moments of truth.
Gabe Vincent: Marks estimated Vincent’s value for 2022-23 in the $6 million-$8 million range.
Again, another proactive move by the Heat, locking Vincent in for next season at $1.8 million, another case of value added.
Tyler Herro: Marks estimated Herro’s value for 2022-23 at $22 million.
This projection doesn’t matter . . . and does. Herro is locked into $5.7 million for next season on the final year of the rookie scale. But he also is extension-eligible, likely for a deal that could exceed $25 million per season.
His projected value will be a prime Heat concern at that October extension deadline, otherwise it will be an element to tackle for the balance of the league in 2023 free agency.
One more 2022 playoff moment wouldn’t hurt.
Caleb Martin: Marks estimated Martin’s value for 2022-23 at $4 million, roughly the bi-annual exception.
There was a point when there was concern the Heat might not be able to retain Martin in restricted free agency. Then some of the shine was lost amid injury.
The Heat can retain the right to match offers to Martin by extending a $2.1 million 2022-23 qualifying offer.
P.J. Tucker: Marks estimated Tucker’s value for 2022-23 in the $4 million-$6 million range.
Tucker has a $7.4 million player option with the Heat for next season, so it could be that simple, with full mid-level availability around the league limited.
He showed again Friday how valuable he is. Perhaps irreplaceable?
Omer Yurtseven: Marks estimated Yurtseven’s value for 2022-23 at $5 million.
While Yurtseven certainly is intriguing, outside interest is moot with yet another prudent forward-thinking move by the Heat that has him locked in at $1.8 million for next season.
Dewayne Dedmon: Marks estimated Dedmon’s value for 2022-23 at the veteran minimum.
That is what Dedmon, an impending free agent, is playing for this season, with the question of whether the Heat would rather cede those minutes to Yurtseven. As it is, Dedmon has not played in the past two games.
Kyle Lowry: Marks estimated Lowry’s value for 2022-23 at the $10.3 million mid-level exception.
And therein lies the rub, with Lowry under contract for $28.3 million next season.
The Heat wanted proven veteran leadership. They likely will wind up having paid a considerable premium. Still, a few more moments like Friday would make it a premium well spent.
Bam Adebayo: Marks estimated Adebayo’s value for 2022-23 at the veteran maximum.
Which is where Adebayo essentially stands.
For all the consternation by some regarding Adebayo’s offensive limitations, he remains viewed as elite because of the defensive contributions.
Jimmy Butler: Marks estimated Butler’s value for 2022-23 at the veteran maximum.
Again, salary that fits with the valuation. Eventually age, as with Lowry, could put the salary above the projection. But this season, Butler was a member of the NBA elite, as Friday again showed.
IN THE LANE
STARTING POINT: Based on the competitive level of the Eastern Conference finals, Celtics forward Grant Williams figures there will be plenty more to come against rival Adebayo. In an interview with Sports Illustrated, Williams spoke of strides already made by the Heat center, Adebayo’s uneven moments in the East finals notwithstanding. “As the years have gone on, it’s gotten more and more fun to play against him because of how much he’s improved, how much he continually wants to get better and improve his shot,” Williams said. “I’m really just excited to play him throughout my career.” But first, one more game this season.
TOO MUCH: With the NBA playing every other night during the conference finals, and with the 2-2-1-1-1 scheduling, it basically means play, travel, play, etc. Honing skills at practice essentially becomes an afterthought. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban also questioned whether it was leading to such extensive playoff injury reports, the rule in Heat-Celtics. Boston coach Ime Udoka said it leads to a rethinking of the concept of practice. “You start to minimize as much as you can in shootarounds and any time on court. You want to have their energy there and their legs there, so a lot longer film sessions,” Udoka said at FTX Arena. “It’s just fine tuning a few things and then letting the guys get what they need, trusting that they’ll get what they need to stay sharp and stay ready, but also stay rested.” Which, in the end, very much has this feeling like a matchup of attrition.
TOO LATE: For all the gratitude Celtics forward Jayson Tatum expressed over being selected first-team All-NBA, it also was a year late, and about $32 million short. That would have been the extra amount Tatum could have realized on the max extension he signed a year ago had he earned the designation in 2021. “Obviously with some guys in a contract year, super-max deals involved, that’s tough,” Tatum said of the process and those bypassed this year. “But it happened. Did I think I was one of the best 15 players last year? A thousand percent. But that’s behind me now and I made it this year and now we’re trying to win a championship.”
A BIG FAN: Count Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr as a fan of the Heat’s messaging about gun-control reform, including the message flashed on FTX Arena scoreboard ahead of Wednesday night’s Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals. Kerr had offered a solemn, emotional such plea a night earlier after the school shootings in Uvalde, Texas. “I’ve had a lot of people reach out to me, most asking what they can do. And I think that’s a really good question,” Kerr said. “So many people want to help and want to know how they can make an impact. I thought what Miami did [Wednesday] night was great on the scoreboard. You know, for whatever reason, it’s a political issue, but it’s really a public health issue.” Kerr added, “We just need to get our public servants to respond to what we all want. I don’t know how to do that, but we’re going to try.”
NUMBER
17. Career postseason double-doubles for Adebayo, including Wednesday night against the Celtics. The only players with more in the Heat’s 34 seasons are LeBron James (31), Dwyane Wade (22) and Chris Bosh (18).
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