Coming off a season-opening sweep at the hands of the defending American League East champion Tampa Bay Rays, the Orioles enter Monday’s home opener at Camden Yards 0-3 for the first time since 2007. But there might be a silver lining.
In their past three seasons, the Orioles won at least one of their first three games before plunging to the bottom of the standings. A 2021 season that started with a sweep of the Boston Red Sox ended with 110 losses, the franchise’s second-most since moving to Baltimore in 1954. Perhaps this time a bad start signals a bright future.
In many ways, this year could provide some of the first glimmers of hope of the long-term rebuild under executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and his staff. Before the Orioles take the field Monday, beat reporters Nathan Ruiz and Andy Kostka and editor Tim Schwartz give their expert opinions about how the 2022 season might play out.
Which Oriole will break out this season?
Ruiz: Mike Baumann. This spring, Baumann showed off the dynamic stuff that made him one of the Orioles’ top minor leaguers in 2019 and led to him sharing the organization’s Jim Palmer Minor League Pitcher of the Year award with Grayson Rodriguez, who has since become baseball’s top pitching prospect. Baumann will open the year in the Orioles’ bullpen, and even if he never returns to a starting role, he’s capable of being a multiple-inning relief weapon, and there could be opportunities for him to pitch late in games, as well.
Kostka: Ramón Urías. The Carlos Correa to the Orioles rumors were fanciful at best and delusional at worst, but perhaps that — or the ripe pipeline of infielders breathing down Urías’ neck in the minors — will prod the 27-year-old to a breakout season. He played well in his first full major league season in 2021, hitting .279. But Urías struck out too frequently last year, which outweighed some of his power potential. One weekend of the season is too small a sample size, but Urías did show flashes of that extra-bag potential against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Schwartz: I’ll go outside the box and say right-hander Félix Bautista. The Orioles traded Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser to the Marlins, opening the door for some unproven talent to showcase they belong in a big league bullpen. Bautista has taken a long road to Baltimore, but he’s shown the ability to miss a lot of bats at every level. If he can trim the 5.8 walks per nine innings he had last season in the minors, he has the stuff to be saving games by the season’s end in what was the worst bullpen in baseball last year.
Who will be the 2022 Most Valuable Oriole?
Ruiz: John Means. Especially early this year, innings will be immensely important, and although Jordan Lyles will contend, Means will likely be Baltimore’s best provider of them. In his second straight season-opening start, the Rays ramped his pitch count up, but he still managed to get through four frames having allowed only one run, his signature changeup racking up swing-and-misses. If Means, one of baseball’s best pitchers through the first two months of 2021, can stay healthy through the year, it might prove hard to argue there’s a more valuable Oriole.
Kostka: John Means. There are very few sure bets in Baltimore’s starting rotation beyond Means, and he’ll be required to be a stabilizing presence. Trey Mancini and Cedric Mullins have potential to be the most valuable Orioles, but Mancini could be gone by the deadline and Mullins’ influence in the order might not stand out from the pack as drastically as Means’ work in the rotation.
Schwartz: Trey Mancini. Mullins has the potential to have another 30-30 season, but Mancini is back to full health and will be eager to earn a big payday in Baltimore or elsewhere. The 30-year-old surprised many by playing in 150 games last year after beating colon cancer, and he’s talked at length this spring about how he’s ready to focus on baseball. He was the team’s best player in 2019, finishing the year as one of only four majors leaguers with 35 home runs, 35 doubles and an OPS of at least .899, and there’s no reason he can’t be that player again.
Predict top prospect Adley Rutschman’s final stat line and finish in American League Rookie of the Year voting.
Ruiz: .265/.377/.482, second. All I did was shave 20 points off each part of Rutschman’s 2021 batting line between Double-A and Triple-A, which might be optimistic given the jump in talent he’ll see going from Norfolk to the American League East. This is a projection based on the possibility Rutschman is as special of a player as he’s been hyped to be, though. In the wild-card era, only 17 rookies with at least 250 plate appearances have finished with this good of a batting line, and it’s a group that includes Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Juan Soto. But none of that trio ever ranked as baseball’s top prospect.
Kostka: .273/.360/.480. Fourth. Rutschman is behind the trio of top prospects who began the regular season with their major league clubs, and there’s a precedent for what a catcher must do to win Rookie of the Year. Take Buster Posey in 2010. Across 108 games, Posey hit .305 with a .505 slugging percentage. Geovany Soto in 2008 hit .285 with a .504 slugging percentage. Those are the only two catchers to win Rookie of the Year this century. If Rutschman doesn’t have a slugging percentage around .500, he might not stand out enough compared to the other young talent.
Schwartz: .278/.352/.443, third. Rutschman should make his MLB debut in late April or early May, and it’s likely he’ll be a mainstay in the lineup from there. With Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas City, Spencer Torkelson in Detroit and Julio Rodríguez in Seattle all breaking camp with their big league clubs, Rutschman will be a month behind. Still, he has little everyday competition, and at age 24 he’s clearly shown he’s ready for a full season in Baltimore. He’ll be the best rookie in baseball, but he won’t have the stats to catch Torkleson or Witt Jr., meaning the Orioles luck out and get an extra year of team control by virtue of him finishing outside the top two for AL Rookie of the Year.
Beyond Rutschman, which debuting prospect will make the best first impression?
Ruiz: Kyle Bradish. With Bradish having already spent most of 2021 at Triple-A, he figures to beat both Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall — the only two pitchers ranked ahead of him in the Orioles’ system — to the majors. This spring, he worked two scoreless innings in both of two outings against New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies’ varsity lineups. The top arm of the four minor league pitchers Baltimore acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for starter Dylan Bundy, Bradish should settle into the Orioles’ rotation before long and spend summer showing off his impressive pitch mix.
Kostka: DL Hall. He’s taking extra time to ramp up as he comes back from an elbow injury that hampered his 2021 and will start in Double-A. But Hall should elevate quickly. The left-hander’s high heat and slider could play well out of the bullpen to start if he doesn’t immediately find his place in Baltimore’s rotation.
Schwartz: Grayson Rodriguez. Has to be, right? The 22-year-old right-hander and the 11th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Rodriguez is banging on Baltimore’s door and should be ready to debut by the summer. He’s been electric in the minors and had a 2.36 ERA last year across High-A Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie. If he continues to put up similar numbers to start this season at Triple-A Norfolk, the Orioles shouldn’t hesitate to see what he can in the big leagues, where his stuff should still play.
Will the Orioles’ record be better or worse than their 52-110 mark in 2021?
Ruiz: Better. There will be some rough stretches early, especially as Brandon Hyde tries to manage an incredibly inexperienced pitching staff. But at some point, he’ll finally have some dudes on his roster. Adley Rutschman and Kyle Stowers will join a lineup that already has potential fixtures Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays. Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall and Kyle Bradish will hopefully follow ace John Means and veteran Jordan Lyles in the rotation. This isn’t the year the Orioles start competing — 2023, anyone? — but it should be one the rebuild finally feels like it’s paying off at Camden Yards. Prediction: 60-102
Kostka: Better. But it has to be, right? Right? Bueller? The turnaround won’t happen this season, but it could come soon. There will surely be rough portions to 2022 as prospects navigate the jump to the big leagues, but the rotation could receive some clarity with Hall, Rodriguez and Bradish joining eventually. And maybe that will help the Orioles avoid a fourth 100-loss season in five years. Prediction: 63-99
Schwartz: Better, but not by much. It’s hard to lose 110 games three years in a row, and the Orioles’ young talent has to be better in 2022. Mancini won’t fade down the stretch like he did last year, and Means is aiming for 200 innings after a shoulder strain sidelined him several weeks in the summer. Rutschman will make an impact, and Mullins is an All-Star. Can Antony Santander get back to his former self? Can Lyles be a workhorse without a bloated ERA? This is by no means a good team, but they won’t be MLB’s worst again. Prediction: 59-103
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