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Alexander: Don’t believe all 2022 MLB predictions – just this one

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In an earlier era of journalism, this might have been labeled a “clip and save” column – and those who attached it to the bulletin board or refrigerator would have a good laugh six or seven months later when those bold predictions flamed out. (Now, of course, those who read online can simply bookmark the story … and while I can’t make it self-destruct, if I’m wrong maybe you won’t be able to find it in your browser by Nov. 1.)

Nevertheless, Opening Day approaches, so it’s appropriate to explain why I picked who I did to be the last ones standing at the end of the 2022 baseball season.

From east to best – and that’s a hint, not a typo – here we go:

NL East: 1. Braves, 2. Mets, 3. Nationals, 4. Phillies, 5. Marlins.

The idea that the highest luxury-tax threshold is now known as the “Steve Cohen Tax” is proof that it’s a new day in Flushing, and the Mets will no longer be outbid. But the Braves are still the champs, and the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. – who missed the merriment last fall after wrecking his knee in July – will give Atlanta enough of a boost to stay on top.

AL East: 1. Blue Jays, 2. Rays, 3. Yankees, 4. Red Sox, 5. Orioles.

Toronto’s Charlie Montoyo should have been 2021 AL Manager of the Year – I was on the BBWAA panel and he had my vote – for getting his team to the brink of the playoffs while playing home games in three cities: Dunedin, Buffalo and Toronto. The Jays are really good, and as long as Canada maintains its vaccination rules – essentially, no shot, no play – and certain U.S.-based players (including members of the Yankees and Red Sox) decline to get the jab, Toronto will have an even bigger home-field advantage.

NL Central: 1. Cardinals, 2. Brewers, 3. Cubs, 4. Pirates, 5. Reds.

What’s more compelling: The race for the top, with St. Louis outlasting Milwaukee in the 21st-century version of Beer Wars, or Pittsburgh and Cincinnati competing to see who can reduce payroll the most? The Cubs are in the wobbly middle, not bad enough to race to the bottom, not good enough to distract owner Tom Ricketts from his bid to buy Chelsea FC.

AL Central: 1. Twins, 2. White Sox, 3. Tigers, 4. Royals, 5. Guardians.

Minnesota won the Central in 2019 and ’20, fell to last place in a weak division in 2021, and could rise back to the top of a similarly weak division in 2022, with the addition of free agent Carlos Correa and the acquisitions of Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela from the Yankees. The White Sox will be a distant runner-up, and for the other three the magic number is 2023 and beyond.

NL West: 1. Dodgers, 2. Padres, 3. Giants, 4. Rockies, 5. Diamondbacks.

After winning 106 games and having to survive the wild-card game in 2021, the Dodgers will start a new streak of division titles. And here’s one guarantee: Their starting pitching rotation will be better at the end of the season than it is at the beginning, because Dustin May will return from Tommy John surgery at midseason and Bobby Miller will emerge in the final months.

Meanwhile, Bob Melvin will settle things down in San Diego and the Padres will chase down the Giants, who take a step back with Buster Posey’s retirement. But you think this division was competitive before? It’ll be a beast for years to come.

AL West: 1. Mariners, 2. Astros, 3. Angels, 4. Rangers, 5. A’s.

Seattle will end a two-decade absence from the playoffs after adding AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray and All-Stars Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker to a team that won 90 games in 2021. The Astros are still the Astros, and a dynamic bullpen and full seasons from Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon along with Shohei Ohtani’s brilliance will have the Angels in the thick of things.

The other narrative in the AL West: How can an A’s team again receiving revenue-sharing money justify paring its payroll so relentlessly? As of Wednesday morning it’s a projected $43.7 million, according to Cot’s Contracts, down from $83.8 million in 2021, and 60% of the opening-day roster may be making the $700,000 minimum. Yes, payroll disparities are bad for baseball, but start at the bottom, not the top.

Wild cards: Brewers, Mets and Padres in the NL, Astros, Angels and Rays in the AL.

Yes, you read that correctly. Neither the Yankees or Red Sox will be involved in the postseason, nor will anyone from the AL Central. Hopefully ESPN, Fox and Turner, who share postseason TV rights, survive the ratings carnage. The four top teams in the East will beat up on each other so badly, it will enable a second team from the West to sneak in.

Edge-of-the-cliff round (i.e., Wild Card Series): NL – Padres over Cardinals, Brewers over Mets (Dodgers and Braves have byes). AL – Angels over Rays, Astros over Twins (Blue Jays and Mariners have byes).

The last time the Angels won a playoff series was 2009, when they swept the Red Sox in the divisional series before losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. Will this year be an outlier or the first of a string of postseason appearances, as the 2000s were in Anaheim?

Division series: NL – Dodgers over Brewers, Braves over Padres. AL – Blue Jays over Angels, Astros over Mariners.

With a best-of-five series and plenty of time to arrange their starting pitching, the Dodgers will make quick work of Milwaukee. The Angels will take theirs to a fifth game in the autumn chill of Toronto and will almost pull it off.

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League Championship Series: NL – Dodgers over Braves. AL – Astros over Blue Jays.

It’s the rubber match in the NL, with the 2020 champ nudging aside the 2021 champ. Meanwhile, Houston wins Game 7 in Toronto, leading to speculation about how possible it might be to jam the new PitchCom anti-sign-stealing technology.

World Series: Dodgers over Houston in 7.

Dave Roberts guaranteed it, after all. The Dodgers will win it all in their own ballpark for the first time since Sandy Koufax leaped off the mound in triumph in 1963. And then maybe the results of 2017 will no longer be such an irritant in this town.

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