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Analysis: LeBron James’ understated evolution as a scorer has helped him chase NBA records

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It turns out that numbers can lie – or, more precisely, obscure the truth.

A glance over LeBron James’ career stat page initially paints a portrait of bedrock consistency. In every year of his career since 2004, James has averaged no fewer than 25 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. His career averages (27.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 7.4 apg) closely mirror every year of his career with only minor deviations. The 37-year-old never has a huge individual dip in his production.

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra once said of James: I just think you can book it every year – 27, 8 and 7. Doesn’t matter what uniform, doesn’t matter what year, doesn’t matter how old.”

But that impression of consistency might actually undersell the amount James has changed his game in 19 NBA seasons, and as he chases down the all-time regular season scoring record, he’d like some credit.

James torched the nets in a 56-point game against Golden State, the team that has arguably forced him to evolve the most in his career. A huge part of his night were his six 3-pointers – three of them came in the fourth quarter of the 124-116 win – and as he discussed how Steph Curry sent the NBA on course for a 3-point shot-centric version of the game, he realized he had to change.

“You got to be able to adjust, man,” he said. “And if you cannot have a growth mindset on how you can find ways to get better with the team, then you’ll get left behind.”

Overlapping James’ production from 10 seasons ago to now will show some common traits. In 2011-12 for the Miami Heat, he averaged 27.1 points, 7.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists on his way to his third MVP award. For the Lakers this season, James isn’t getting the wins he wants, but he’s still third in scoring (29.4 ppg) behind only Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid while adding 8.1 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.

What those seasons have in common is remarkable – but what might be even more impressive is how they don’t line up. Looking at James’ shot charts from those seasons, it’s difficult to recognize them as the same player.

In that MVP season, James took a career-low in 3-pointers: Only 11% of his shot attempts were threes, and nearly half (49%) were mid-range shots. The 2021-22 version of James is one who has fully adapted to modern analytic thinking: Stat site Cleaning the Glass has charted his 3-point attempt percentage growing for six straight seasons, now at a career high of 34% of his attempts. His midrange shots now account for just 23% of his field goal attempts, and he even gets a slightly higher percentage of looks at the rim as a 37-year-old (43%) than he did as a 27-year-old (40%).

James has played in 46 games this season, making 128 threes. He just needs 21 more makes to eclipse the total number of his 2011-12 attempts (149) from beyond the arc in 62 games. While his efficiency on threes (35.4%) is a little down from his percentage 10 years ago (36.2%), it makes sense that James’ averages would level out now that he’s taking more than three times as many 3-point attempts (7.9 per game).

A decade ago, James would hammer opponents from the left baseline with turnaround jumpers. That’s still a shot he can hit, but his more recent sweet spot is from beyond the arc on the left side – StatMuse tracks him at 37.2% from that zone, where he can unleash his stepback three. It’s now common to see James swishing a few 40-footers in his pregame warm-up routine, a weapon he started to put into more use after Curry’s long-range stroke became a league-wide craze.

None of these changes were sudden. James’ rock-steady counting statistics only create the impression that his game is standing still.

“I just think the biggest thing is what he’s done to transition his game to this stage of his career in terms of his shooting,” Coach Frank Vogel said. “It’s just an example for every player to put the work into his craft.”

There’s a lot of subtext to those details, not the least of which is that James wants more respect for how he’s rewriting NBA history. He’s only 208 points behind Karl Malone (he should pass him in the coming month) at No. 2 all-time, and 1,667 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He’s already passed both by becoming the leading scorer in combined regular season and postseason history. And yet, James feels that he has not received the reputation of being a great scorer.

“When they talk about the best scorers of all time, they never mention my name,” James said in a recent episode of his show The Shop. “Yeah, it pisses me off.”

James has long ago passed Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, but there are critiques of how he scores compared to those two. Even contemporaries like Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony are often considered better bucket-getters than James, who even called himself not a “natural scorer.” While it might be a semantics-driven discussion, it does motivate James.

“I can only imagine somebody who can be the all-time leading scorer in NBA history who doesn’t get the credit of being a ‘scorer,’” said Anthony. “It is what it is. They got to talk about something. We all know he can score the ball.”

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There’s also relevance to Russell Westbrook, James’ teammate who has struggled with the decline of his athleticism. James adapting as a long-range shooter late in his career may inform Westbrook’s path to aging more gracefully in the game. If James and Vogel were subtle about that subtext, Westbrook seemed to acknowledge directly it after Saturday’s game.

“I do know, just being around daily, seeing him being locked in and playing at a level that a lot of people don’t really expect him to play at at his age, to see it firsthand, it’s something I can learn from as I continue to get older in this league and find ways to be able to be effective,” Westbrook said. “He’s one of the best of all time, and he’s showing exactly why he’s that.”

Ultimately, while James often says he’s humbled to be listed among the greats, his desire to shape his legacy still drives him – he still wants the respect he believes he’s still due. And as he inches closer to Abdul-Jabbar’s record, he would like to be thought of as someone who found ways to grow to reach it.

“I’ve always just wanted to have a game that fits any style of play or any era,” he said. “I feel like my game would fit any era in basketball history from the time that the great James Naismith created it. So, as long as I’m in this league and the game changes again and I’m still in it, hopefully I’ll be able to continue to have that growth mindset and continue to adapt.”

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