Opponents of a proposed desalination plant in Huntington Beach have released a 3-D simulation of how water inching inland as sea levels rise in the future could flood the area to help make their argument against the project.

Poseidon Water’s proposal for the plant is working its way through various agencies getting approvals necessary to start construction. Those behind the project argue they have done their own research based on the standards used by the state looking at sea level rise and tsunami hazards in the area of the project and it would not be vulnerable given what was is forecast during its operating life.

The proposed desalination plant in Huntington Beach last year gained needed approvals from the Regional Water Quality Control Board, prompting two environmental groups – Orange County Coastkeeper and the California Coastkeeper Alliance – to sue in September, saying the board’s environmental review of the project was inadequate.

To help make their argument about the coastline’s susceptibility to rising seas, the groups commissioned the simulation by Dr. Juliano Calil, scientist and co-founder of Virtual Planet Technologies.

“As a local resident, I’m just very concerned about what I saw – this visualization of what the science shows,” Ray Hiemstra, associate director of programs for Orange County Coastkeeper, said. “It’s just one of those things, ‘seeing is believing,’ and this really shows us what we’re looking at going forward. I can’t imagine putting anything of significant value on that site.”

The controversial, $1.4 billion project has been in the works for more than two decades. It still needs a permit from the California Coastal Commission, which will hear the proposal in March, before it can negotiate a final contract with the Orange County Water District and begin construction, possibly by 2023.

The Coastal Commission viewed the simulation video during its meeting Friday, but no discussion was held.

The video, released by a coalition called Stop Poseidon that includes Azul, the California Coastal Protection Network, Orange County Coastkeeper, Sunrise Movement and the Surfrider Foundation, calls the project an “unnecessary development.”

Opponents of Poseidon’s ocean-to-tap water project also raise concerns about the potential for negative impacts on marine life, the projected cost of the water being higher than other sources and question whether the water is needed.

Proponents of the plant to desalt ocean water say another source of drinking water is needed with persistent and worsening droughts and the chance that Orange County might get less imported water from northern California and the Colorado River.

Poseidon argues its project would produce enough potable water for nearly a half million Orange County residents, using pipes to draw water directly from the ocean.

In the video released this week, various scenarios are simulated, like what the area could look like with just a foot of sea level rise up to 6.6 feet, with viewers able to toggle between the levels to see how much water fills in.

At 4.1 feet of sea level rise, for example, powerful storm waves seen in a 100-year storm are projected to flood onto Highway 1, or Pacific Coast Highway, into nearby neighborhoods. Surrounding areas at lower levels are completely flooded in the simulation. If levels were to rise 4.9 feet, such a storm could result in significant flooding that would create an island of the plant, impacting access roads to the facility, electricity and making it difficult to repair water distribution pipelines.

At 6.6 feet of sea level rise during such a storm, the simulation has surrounding neighborhoods, infrastructure, access, utilities and water pipes all submerged. Oil containment berms built in the 1950s would be insufficient to protect the facility.

The impacts of a possible tsunami were also simulated.

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Mandy Sackett, California policy coordinator for the Surfrider Foundation, said the simulation helps show how vulnerable the area could be in years to come.

“I’m really hoping it will help us make smart planning decisions for the coast, for this coastal hazard zone, so we can protect our precious coastal resources,” she said.

“We know these impacts are not a matter of if, but when, to this site,” she said. “It is surprising, but also sheds light on the decision pathways and hopefully helps us make better and wiser adaptation decisions moving forward.”

The simulation came from projections by the California Ocean Protection Council and the California Coastal Commission, while also incorporating sea level rise and tsunami risk from the US Geological Survey, Sackett said.

Calil said the video was created using drone footage and 360 video photos, incorporated artistic renderings of flat maps.

“It’s really clear the proposed plant would be subject to some flooding within its lifetime,” Sackett said.

Moffatt & Nichol, an engineering and infrastructure firm that has consulted for a number of coastal cities, performed studies for Poseidon Water on the impact to the site of sea level rise and tsunami hazards that have also been submitted to the Coastal Commission.

“Relying on the best available climate change science adopted by the state of California and regulatory guidance from the California Coastal Commission, Moffatt & Nichol completed extensive site-specific numerical modeling studies and risk assessment calculations, which inform the design of the project,” a released statement from the firm said. “The result is that the facility is not vulnerable to any reasonably expected sea level rise or tsunami flood hazards that are projected to occur during the 50-year operating life of the facility.”

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