Analysis and predictions for the CIF Southern Section boys basketball playoffs that begin this week …
OPEN DIVISION
The field as seeded: 1. Centennial of Corona (26-1); 2. Sierra Canyon (22-3); 3. Harvard-Westlake (21-2); 4. Crean Lutheran (22-3); 5. Damien (26-2); 6. Mater Dei (25-2); 7. Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks (19-4); 8. Bishop Montgomery (18-2)
Outlook: The pool play format has the Nos. 1, 4, 5 and 8 teams in Pool A, Nos. 2, 3, 6 and 7 in Pool B. Crean Lutheran, led by Orange County player of the year candidate Koat Keat (6-10, Sr.), in Pool A has helpful home games against Damien on Friday, Bishop Montgomery on Tuesday. The Saints must play at Centennial on Feb. 18. Mater Dei, also with a county player of the candidate in Zack Davidson (6-8, Jr.), is a longshot. The Monarchs have away games against Harvard-Westlake, which features excellent shooter Brady Dunlap (6-8, Jr.), and at Sierra Canyon (yes, the Bronny James team). All Open Division teams are invited to the CIF State tournament.
Finalists: Centennial; Sierra Canyon
Champion: Centennial
DIVISION 1
Top seeds: 1. Riverside Poly (25-2); 2. Rolling Hills Prep (20-1); 3. Etiwanda (20-6); 4. Colony (23-2)
Outlook: An interesting Orange County first-round game in this division Friday is Los Alamitos at Santa Margarita, a game Santa Margarita will win on its way to a semifinals matchup with Riverside Poly. Fairmont Prep has an excellent assortment of players, including Chol Deng (6-5, Sr.) and Myle Che (6-2, PG), but would have to play at St. John Bosco, a hot team, in the second round. Trinity League at-large teams JSerra and Orange Lutheran are capable of advancing to the quarterfinals.
Final 4: Riverside Poly; Santa Margarita; St. John Bosco; Rolling Hills Prep
Champion: Riverside Poly
DIVISION 2AA
Top Seeds: 1. Capistrano Valley Christian (18-7); 2. Canyon (23-4); 3. Village Christian (22-4); 4. Foothill (24-2)
Outlook: Capistrano Valley Christian has dealt with health challenges, COVID and otherwise, on its talented roster that includes high-scoring seniors Mac West (6-3) and Makaih Williams (6-1). Foothill has the goods to be a semifinalist. Canyon and already-polished freshman Brandon Benjamin (6-3) looked terrific in a 68-47 win at Foothill last week. Servite at Canyon on Friday will be an intense first-round game. Freeway League champion Sonora takes a nine-game winning streak into the playoffs, but drew a tough opponent, Serra of Gardena, for a first-round home game Friday.
Final 4: Capistrano Valley Christian; Foothill; Village Christian; Canyon
Champion: Canyon
Edison’s Quinn Delaney shoots over Los Alamitos’ Daniel Mellgoza during a Surf League game at Edison in Huntington Beach on Thursday, February 3, 2022. (Photo by Kyusung Gong/Contributing Photographer)
DIVISION 2A
Top Seeds: 1. San Juan Hills (23-4), 2. Edison (24-4), 3. Tesoro (22-5), 4. Crescenta Valley (16-3)
Outlook: San Juan Hills, Edison and Tesoro received first-round byes, so they will have second-round home games. San Juan Hills, a balanced-scoring group led by 6-2 senior guard Mark Reichner’s 15 points a game, has won 10 of its past 11 games, with that loss to Mater Dei. Edison has versatile scorer Trey Wilborn (6-5, Sr.) leading a deep roster of guys who don’t diverge from their roles. Tesoro won the championship of the South Coast League, always an accomplishment, and has sure-thing All-County junior guard Carson Brown.
Final 4: San Juan Hills; St. Paul; Tesoro; Edison.
Champion: Edison
DIVISION 3AA
Top Seeds: 1. Rancho Cucamonga (22-6); 2. Chaparral (19-6); 3. Linfield Christian (24-4), 4. Oak Hills (20-6).
Outlook: Rancho Cucamonga’s losses were to Open Division selectee Damien (twice), and Division 1 stalwarts Etiwanda (twice), Riverside Poly and Great Oak. Chaparral finished second to Great Oak in the Southwestern League, but beat Great Oak on Saturday. Linfield Christian senior guard Damian Ruiz averages 25 points a game. The only O.C. teams here are Tustin and Yorba Linda. Tustin will grind its way to the quarterfinals, and a semifinals visit seems possible.
Final 4: Rancho Cucamonga; Norco; Linfield Christian; Chaparral
Champion: Rancho Cucamonga
DIVISION 3A
Top Seeds: 1. La Cañada (19-7); 2. South Pasadena (15-5); 3. Dana Hills (15-9); 4. Ayala (20-7)
Outlook: With no “star” team, this division is difficult to forecast. Dana Hills is an at-large team, yet is seeded third. The O.C. team to monitor here is Calvary Chapel, last season’s 5AA champion. The Eagles have a good mix of muscle and quickness.
Final 4: La Cañada; Ayala; Calvary Chapel; South Pasadena.
Champion: South Pasadena
DIVISION 4AA
Top Seeds: 1. Artesia (23-5); 2. San Marino (20-3); 3. Sunny Hills (23-7); 4. Rio Mesa (16-9)
Outlook: This isn’t the Artesia team of the James Harden days, but the Pioneers look like the class of this division. Sunny Hills finished second to Sonora in the Freeway League. Fullerton, third in the Freeway League, must be considered after beating Sunny Hills last week.
Final 4: Artesia; San Dimas; Sunny Hills; San Marino
Champion: Artesia
DIVISION 4A
Top Seeds: 1. Arrowhead Christian (17-8); 2. Dos Pueblos (19-8); 3. Valley Torah (23-2); 4. St. Monica (12-8)
Outlook: Three of Dos Pueblos’ losses were to Mater Dei, Santa Margarita and St. John Bosco. Arrowhead Christian finished third in the Ambassador League, one of the CIF Southern Section’s better small-school leagues. Sage Hill opens at St. Monica … upset potential?
Final 4: Arrowhead Christian; St. Monica; Valley Torah; Dos Pueblos
Champion: Arrowhead Christian
DIVISION 5AA
Top Seeds: 1. Malibu (12-5); 2. Woodcrest Christian (15-11); 3. Chaffey (16-11); 4. Santa Ana (15-9)
Outlook: Santa Ana finished second to Calvary Chapel in the Orange Coast League. It’s difficult to find an impressive win or impressively close loss on the Saints schedule, but the Orange Coast is a fairly good basketball league. Malibu and Woodcrest Christian have been the best 5A teams since Jan. 1.
Final 4: Malibu; Villanova Prep; Chaffey; Woodcrest Christian
Champion: Malibu
DIVISION 5A
Top Seeds: 1. Fontana (20-5); 2. La Quinta (16-10); 3. Temecula Prep (15-8); 4. Silver Valley (15-1)
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Outlook: La Quinta, which tied with Bolsa Grande for second behind Santiago, in the Garden Grove League, beat several higher-division O.C. teams from good leagues. Fontana, though, has the most-impressive resume.
Final 4: Fontana; Silver Valley; Riverside Prep; La Quinta
Champion: Fontana