RAMS (12-4) VS. 49ERS (9-7)
When: 1:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
TV/radio: Ch. 11; 710 AM, 93.1 FM, 1330 AM (Spanish)
Line: Rams by 4
Notable injury designations: Rams: Nobody is questionable or doubtful; S Nick Scott (thumb) is expected to play in a cast. 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb), LT Trent Williams (elbow), LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee), LB Dre Greenlaw (groin), LB Marcell Harris (Achilles’), DT Maurice Hurst (calf) and S Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder) are questionable; CB K’Waun Williams, S Jimmie Ward, CB Deommodore Lenoir and CB Dontae Johnson were on the COVID-19 reserve list Saturday.
What’s at stake? The regular season’s final game has playoff implications for both teams. The Rams, who clinched at least a wild card last week, will be NFC West champions and No. 2 seed in the NFC if they win or tie, or the Cardinals lose or tie in their game. The 49ers can clinch a wild-card berth with a win or tie, or a Saints loss or tie.
Who’s better? The Rams have been ahead of the 49ers in the standings since September, but don’t tell the Niners they’re inferior. San Francisco has won six of its last eight games, and five in a row over the Rams. Football Outsiders’ latest analytics rate the Rams’ offense and defense No. 6 and No. 5 in the league, respectively, and the 49ers’ No. 5 and No. 8.
Matchup to watch: Rams CB Jalen Ramsey vs. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. It takes a one-man defensive gang like Ramsey to hope to contain Samuel, who can line up in various positions, sort of like Rams WR Cooper Kupp. Third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,630), Samuel accounted for 266 yards receiving and rushing in the 49ers’ past two wins over the Rams.
Rams win if … If QB Matthew Stafford attacks a potentially depleted 49ers secondary, but doesn’t get so aggressive that he repeats the turnover disasters of the teams’ first meeting … If the Rams’ improved rushing defense keeps the Niners from using RB Elijah Mitchell to control the ball and stay out of third and long. … If the Rams’ special teams, up to No. 6 in Football Outsiders rankings, exploit their edge over San Francisco, which is No. 27.
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Fantasy pick: Rams WR Cooper Kupp. The NFL’s leading receiver had 11 catches for 122 yards in the first game against the 49ers. Don’t expect the Rams to force-feed Kupp the ball to help him get the 12 catches and 136 yards he needs to break NFL single-season records. But don’t expect them to use him as a decoy either.
Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 23. The November meeting up north was the Rams’ most lopsided loss in Matthew Stafford’s first season here and the worst against a division opponent in the Sean McVay era. Turning it around depends on getting and keeping the ball. That means Stafford limiting turnovers, and the defense doing better than it has in going 1-4 vs. the point spread when facing top-10 running backs (based on yards per carry) like Mitchell.