Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (7-7) and New Orleans Saints (7-7) match up in six key areas ahead of Monday’s Week 16 game at Caesars Superdome (8:15 p.m., ESPN):
When the Dolphins run: The Dolphins are coming off a season-high 183 rushing yards last Sunday. The caveat: It came against the New York Jets, and the Saints are far better at defending the run, sixth in the NFL at 96.6 yards allowed per game on the ground.
Miami produced its best rushing effort the first time veteran and former University of Miami great Duke Johnson was the team’s lead back, coming up from the practice squad as a COVID-19 replacement against the Jets. Now, after his 107-yard, two-touchdown performance, Johnson has been signed to the active roster for the remainder of the season. Phillip Lindsay is back off the COVID list, and Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed have a full week of practice ahead of this one in what has become a crowded running back room.
Middle linebacker Demario Davis leads New Orleans in tackles with 95. The Dolphins’ offensive line, which has blocked better as the season has progressed, will have to account for Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Jordan. Strong safety Malcolm Jenkins offers solid run support, but he is one of the Saints on the COVID list. New Orleans is still stout in this area while Miami is 31st in yards per attempt but trending in the right direction. Edge: Saints
When the Saints run: Running back Alvin Kamara is as perennial of an NFC Pro Bowler as can be, earning his fifth selection in as many NFL seasons. He is actually running for a career-low 3.6 yards per carry this season, but the elusive 5-10, 215-pound back is always capable of returning to form. The Saints’ run game took a dip when Kamara missed four games, but he returned two weeks ago against the Jets to tie a season high with 120 rushing yards.
The Saints also have three Pro Bowls on the résumé of No. 2 back, 32-year-old Mark Ingram. He has 243 yards on 64 carries (3.8 average) in six games since rejoining the Saints off the trade from the Houston Texans. A big running threat in quarterback Taysom Hill was placed on the COVID list on Thursday, so assuming he can’t go, rookie Ian Book will make his NFL regular-season debut. Based on his college play at Notre Dame, he can scramble a bit, as well.
The Dolphins’ run defense has kept opponents under 100 yards in six of its past nine games. The three others were all 102-yard outputs exactly. On the six-game winning streak, the Dolphins’ run defense is fifth in the NFL in that span. It all starts with Raekwon Davis, Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler winning at the line of scrimmage against what will be a banged-up Saints offensive line. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will get his top receiver in Jaylen Waddle back off the COVID list. That will be an immense help after his pass catchers struggled to get much separation on their routes last time out against the Jets. Waddle is best on the team at getting open and his presence will open things up for others, as well.
Tagovailoa’s two-interception, sub-60 completion percentage performance against New York last week snapped a run of four straight appearances with a passer rating in triple digits. Behind an offensive line that has allowed fewer pressures in recent weeks, Tagovailoa will look to return to efficient form getting the ball out quick for underneath throws and mixing in the occasional downfield throw.
The Saints are coming off a shutout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their aerial attack, but by the end of that 9-0 Sunday Night Football game, quarterback Tom Brady didn’t have any of the three receivers that torched the Dolphins earlier this season, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown. Jordan and opposite defensive end Marcus Davenport have combined for 12 1/2 sacks. Although Jenkins is on the COVID list, the Saints’ secondary still has talent in Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and others. Edge: Saints
When the Saints pass: It’s been a combination of Hill and Trevor Siemian since Jameis Winston went down midseason and the Dolphins thought they would be facing Hill on Monday night, but he and Siemian landed on the COVID list on Thursday. That has now opened the door for Ian Book to start for the first time.
Book is mobile in his own right, so Miami doesn’t have to alter too much of the game plan. He also has both starting tackles’ status in doubt as the two missed practice early in the week. That could prove costly for New Orleans against the Dolphins’ blitz-happy scheme with Jaelan Phillips, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jerome Baker, Andrew Van Ginkel and even safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones coming in waves.
Without star receiver Michael Thomas and with Deonte Harris suspended, the Saints’ receiving corps isn’t too intimidating behind Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Expect Miami to man up on the outside with Pro Bowler Xavien Howard and opposite cornerback Byron Jones, allowing extra defenders to rush the passer. The Dolphins also have to watch out for Kamara catching the ball out of the backfield. He has 38 receptions for 348 yards and four touchdowns. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has seen his share of misses this season, 18 of 24 on field goals and with an extra point miss. Since being inserted as Saints kicker, Brett Maher is 8 of 9 on field goals with the one miss from 50-plus yards and has also missed a point-after.
Dolphins punter Michael Palardy has impressed in recent weeks after a slow start. New Orleans’ Brett Gillikin is averaging 48.2 yards per punt. Easop Winston has recently replaced the suspended Harris on punt returns and impressed in the past two games with multiple double-digit-yard returns. The Saints have special teamer JT Gray on his way to the Pro Bowl, but Dolphins gunner Mack Hollins would be an AFC candidate were he not in the same conference as New England’s Matthew Slater. Edge: Saints
Intangibles: There are pros and cons to what both teams have going on. First off, the Dolphins’ six-game winning streak has Miami coming in hot. New Orleans has rebounded from a five-game losing streak with two straight wins, the last one a 9-0 win over the Buccaneers. The Superdome will be loud on Monday night, and it could be tough for the Dolphins offense to communicate. The Saints, however, also still have not had coach Sean Payton return from testing positive for COVID, and while the Dolphins get Waddle, Holland and Lindsay back, New Orleans is going in the wrong direction with nine players added to the COVID list on Thursday. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 17, Saints 13