Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (6-7) and New York Jets (3-10) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 13 game at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m., CBS):
When the Dolphins run: The Dolphins could be without their top three running backs as Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Phillip Lindsay are all in league COVID protocols. Miami is prepared to not allow their potential absences alter their game plan. Averaging 28 rushing attempts over the five-game winning streak, the Dolphins want to maintain a commitment to the run and balance in the run-pass-option offense.
Miami averages 3.3 yards per carry, good for second-to-last in the NFL, so it’s not like there’s much to be lost with a replacement group of backs. Duke Johnson could lead that group as the only running back on the active roster after his elevation as a COVID-19 replacement. His one prior game played with the Dolphins was last time out against the Jets, when he had 18 yards on four carries. Malcolm Brown has also returned to practice after landing on injured reserve (quadriceps) following the Oct. 24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Gerrid Doaks and newly signed Dexter Williams are options to be elevated from the practice squad.
The Jets rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 138.8 yards per game on the ground. Middle linebacker C.J. Mosley leads the team with 118 tackles. Defensive tackle and former No. 3 overall pick Quinnen Williams will be key to control for Miami’s offensive line. Edge: Even
When the Jets run: After the Dolphins allowed 121 rushing yards or more in all of their first five games this season, the most they have allowed in the eight games since is 102 — twice. They’ve kept opponents to double digits rushing in every other game since. The run has boosted Miami’s run defense all the way up eighth in the league after being at the bottom to start the year.
Nose tackle Raekwon Davis’ return to health has been instrumental during that stretch, but so has the play of fellow defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler. Linebacker Jerome Baker has been able to move around, inside and out, and leads the team with 66 tackles, although that’s only two more than safety Eric Rowe.
The Jets only produce 84.2 rushing yards per game, which is 30th in the NFL, but they are expected to activate rookie running back Michael Carter off injured reserve. He got hurt in New York’s Nov. 21 loss to the Dolphins but was having his best yards-per-carry game (63 yards on nine attempts for a 7.0 average) against the Dolphins before suffering the injury. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa enters Sunday with a streak of posting a quarterback rating of 104 or better in each of his past three starts plus the second half of the Thursday night win over the Baltimore Ravens on Nov. 11. He continues to complete passes at a high percentage (77.9 percent over those outings) with five touchdowns to one interception in that span.
His top pass-catching target continues to be rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle, who remains on pace to surpass the NFL rookie receptions record. He has 86 catches for 849 yards and four touchdowns. Sunday will be a second game back for DeVante Parker after he had five receptions for 62 yards in his return against the Giants before the bye.
The Jets have only intercepted four passes all season. One of those came against Tagovailoa last time the teams faced off, but Tua also connected on a career-long 65-yard touchdown pass to Mack Hollins due to a breakdown in the New York secondary in that game. The Jets’ pass defense is 27th in the NFL. Williams and defensive end John Franklin-Myers each have six sacks this season. Edge: Dolphins
When the Jets pass: The Dolphins will get their first look at rookie Jets quarterback Zach Wilson after Joe Flacco started the last meeting while Wilson was still recovering from a knee injury and Mike White was benched. In nine starts, Wilson is 2-7, completing 56.1 percent of passes for 1,741 yards, six touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
It will be tough for the rookie to face the vaunted Dolphins defense that will present exotic blitzes, even if standout rookie safety Jevon Holland can’t go (COVID list). Miami has forced 11 turnovers during the five-game winning streak, allowing cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones to play man to man while bringing pressure. Rookie outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips has five sacks over the pass two games and has been in on a sack in each of the past five games.
Jets rookie wideout Elijah Moore, who Howard complimented last time Miami played New York, is on injured reserve, along with Corey Davis. Former Miami Hurricanes standout Braxton Berrios could get more targets in a receiving corps with Jamsion Crowder, Keelan Cole and Denzel Mims. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders has struggled this year, making 17 of 23 field goals with an extra point miss to boot, but he’s got to be due to turn things around at some point after only missing three times all last season. Punter Michael Palardy turned his early-season struggles into a plus and even earned AFC Special Teams Player of the Week last time out against the Giants.
The Jets now have former Florida Gator and Miami Sunset High’s Eddy Pineiro handling kicks. In his first game with New York against New Orleans last Sunday, he made all three of his field goal attempts. Punter Braden Mann averages 44.5 yards on his punts. Miami, while not getting a touchdown in the return game this season, blocked a punt for a touchdown two games ago against Carolina. Duke Riley blocked it for the Justin Coleman touchdown, and Mack Hollins is a top gunner in the league. Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles: The Dolphins come in hot as the winners of five straight, are playing at home against a struggling Jets team and coming off a bye week ahead of the final stretch and push for a postseason spot. While the Jets don’t have much to play for, you always have to watch out for a team looking to play spoiler against a division rival. Edge: Dolphins
PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Jets 10