Justin Fields’ return from three cracked ribs comes as the Chicago Bears organization seeks not just glimpses of hope for the future but consistent signs the rookie quarterback is the player to rebuild around.
Provided Fields remains healthy for the next five weeks, he is in position to start 13 games as a rookie, which would be one more than Mitch Trubisky had in 2017. In many ways, the start of 2022 could mirror the start of 2018 for the Bears, especially if the team launches into a coaching search with the goal of identifying the right man to develop the talent in Fields and bring out his best.
Flash back to January 2018 and the prevailing storyline was that Matt Nagy and his staff would be perfect to unlock the talents of Trubisky, whom the Bears traded up to draft at No. 2 a year earlier, selecting him ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. That process never succeeded and whether Trubisky, the staff or a combination of both should be blamed, it doesn’t matter at this point. Trubisky is with the Buffalo Bills, and the Bears are likely weeks away from making significant organizational changes.
Put Trubisky’s 2017 numbers under coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains side-by-side with Fields’ numbers to this point and they are similar in a lot of ways.
2017 Mitch Trubisky: 196 completions on 330 attempts (59.4%), seven touchdowns, seven interceptions, 77.5 rating, 6.6 yards per attempt, 31 sacks
2021 Justin Fields: 115 completions on 198 attempts (58.1%), four touchdowns, eight interceptions, 69 rating, 6.9 yards per attempt, 31 sacks
Numbers are worth only so much in the evaluation process. As Washington Football Team coach Ron Rivera used to tell me regularly: Figures lie and liars figure. If Fields plays in the final five games, his statistics could look better when the season ends.
Using another measuring stick, Pro Football Focus’ grades for the two players are similar. Trubisky had a 66.4 rating as a rookie with a 71.2 rating as a passer and 39.4 rating as a runner. Fields currently has a 64.2 overall rating — 60.5 as a passer and 73.7 as a runner. Trubisky’s adjusted competion percentage — passes that should be caught — was 70.3% compared with 64% for Fields. PFF’s grades and numbers don’t mean much — if anything — to front offices, but they are another tool to evaluate quarterbacks. In this case, they indicate the Bears’ current situation is similar (or perhaps not so) to what it was in the final weeks of the 2017 season.
Fields’ composure and his highly regarded work ethic give him the opportunity to take a big step forward going into Year 2. He came out of Ohio State with more college experience than Trubisky had at North Carolina, and Fields was far more tested in big games against top programs than his predecessor.
Both are excellent athletes, and Fields is even more dangerous when escaping the pocket and running in the open field. It has not been realistic to see Fields improve in a linear line during a rookie season with so many issues surrounding him. The hope is that two weeks on the sideline helped him see the game from a different angle, something that will aid him against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
Progress goes beyond statistical production. Fields is gaining experience reading defenses pre-snap and post-snap. He’s getting a feel for how defenses are trying to attack him and what the answers are. He’s learning on the job, a foundation that should prepare him for Year 2.
“Even going back to the San Fran game, I really felt like the game, No. 1, was slowing down to him,” Nagy said. “Now as he gets back out there, to be able to help get to different spots within the offense. So if we have a check at the line, if we have some growth where he can get to something within the play, seeing him grow in that aspect. I really felt like his confidence was starting to get good out there.”
Fields would have a signature win in Week 9 against the Pittsburgh Steelers if the Bears defense wouldn’t have collapsed in the final minute or if some officiating errors had not stung the Bears. The seven-play, 75-yard drive Fields directed to give the Bears a 27-26 lead with 1 minute, 46 seconds remaining was a display of everything the team is seeking from the quarterback. Finding that consistency in playmaking, though, is challenging — as it is for almost all rookies — and he fell flat the next week against the Baltimore Ravens before leaving with injured ribs.
“What would give the Bears the most optimism would be to see him make plays within the pocket more so than the flashy plays, which come outside the pocket,” said a veteran personnel man who has watched the Bears. “He’s made some flashy plays. But to give them real optimism moving forward, you want to make him make the plays on schedule and by design because that is going to be what he needs to do to be consistently successful over time. That’s what they never got from Mitch.”
Said another scout: “They’re running a bunch of schemed throws, lot of boot and play action to get him to the edge of the pocket. So they’re being selectively aggressive when they push the ball downfield. It’s the rookie handbook. You have a young athlete at the position and you’re trying to answer the question, ‘How do we scheme him up versus pro competition so we can let him see it and read it out quickly or get him to the edge to use his athletic traits more?’
“Fields could be in a worse position next year because when Trubisky came back in 2018 for Year 2, they had a playoff defense. The Bears don’t have that anymore. The positive is you have to look at these last five games. If he stays healthy and he shows some improvement then — assuming a new coach comes in — they can say, ‘OK, here is what he does well. Here is how we’re going to build around him and make him even better.’ They’re going to have to be aggressive building this around Fields.”
The stretch run of the season isn’t a referendum for Fields and his future. It is an opportunity for him to stack together some strong outings with more help on the outside available as wide receiver Allen Robinson is returning from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for a month. The Bears have plenty of reasons to remain excited about Fields. They felt similarly about Trubisky in 2018, and hopefully they won’t make similar missteps as they build around their young quarterback.
“I’m not trying to prove anything,” Fields said. “I’m just trying to win. I don’t know what I have to prove to anybody. I’m trying to get five wins.”
That would be a big step in the right direction.
Scouting report
De’Vondre Campbell, Packers inside linebacker
Information for this report was obtained from NFL scouts.
De’Vondre Campbell, 6-foot-3, 232 pounds, is in his sixth NFL season and first in Green Bay after the Packers signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract. A fourth-round pick by the Atlanta Falcons out of Minnesota in 2016, Campbell spent four years with the Falcons before playing for the Arizona Cardinals last season.
Campbell was cleared from the reserve/COVID-19 list Friday and is expected to play Sunday. He leads the Packers defense with 98 tackles (68 solos) and has four tackles for a loss, two interceptions, three passes defended, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
“I like him a lot because this has been a position of need for Green Bay for years, to have a impact player at the second level as a stack guy, not an edge guy on the outside but an inside linebacker,” the scout said. “He has second-level range and the athletic traits to be that guy. Go back to the tape of when the Packers played Arizona and Kyler Murray in October. Campbell did a really good job of matching Murray in the open field. He’s very fluid in coverage. He can drop to routes at the second level, he can match underneath and he’s got some savvy to him against the run game, the ability to slip blocks and take proper angles.
“He’s a downhill thumper, too, and will drop the hammer and melt your face mask. He’s a really good player and he’s finally answered the question of who was going to fill that role for that defense. They had Blake Martinez, but he was a stat stuffer. He’d make tackles 4 yards downfield. You want someone to make impact plays, and that is what Campbell has given them. I’ve been impressed with his tape this season. He’s a good player, and not enough people are talking about him in terms of what Green Bay is doing on defense this season. He was able to spy Murray and so on third downs, keep an eye on him against Justin Fields.”